據(jù)5月4日Oil Now報(bào)道，在近兩周的時(shí)間里，印度每天新增超過(guò)30萬(wàn)例新冠肺炎病例，疫情危機(jī)日益嚴(yán)峻，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致石油消費(fèi)的前景在短期內(nèi)惡化，不過(guò)，就長(zhǎng)期看，今年晚些時(shí)候或?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)反彈。

　　印度石油工業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)(FIPI)總干事Malhotra稱："從目前的情況來(lái)看，可能需要幾個(gè)月的時(shí)間，印度的疫情才能穩(wěn)定下來(lái)。由于地區(qū)封鎖限制了許多活動(dòng)，二季度的石油市場(chǎng)不容樂觀。”

　　印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)敦促各邦領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將重點(diǎn)放在隔離區(qū)上，將區(qū)域性的封鎖作為最后手段。由于擔(dān)心疫情可能會(huì)變得更糟，許多省份計(jì)劃實(shí)施封鎖措施。

　　隨著印度受到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的新冠肺炎病例的打擊，2021年印度石油需求將同比增長(zhǎng)40萬(wàn)桶/天，較此前44萬(wàn)桶/天的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期有所下調(diào)。這個(gè)數(shù)字可能會(huì)再下調(diào)2萬(wàn)桶/天，但進(jìn)一步的下調(diào)還要取決于未來(lái)幾周的形勢(shì)發(fā)展。

　　分析師Chris Midgley認(rèn)為，“隨著全球工業(yè)活動(dòng)的復(fù)蘇，印度將繼續(xù)從強(qiáng)勁的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中獲益。石油需求可能在短期內(nèi)放緩，但有足夠的條件讓我們相信，2021年下半年，石油消費(fèi)將出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。”

　　作為世界第三大原油消費(fèi)國(guó)和進(jìn)口國(guó)，作為與圭亞那政府長(zhǎng)期協(xié)議的一部分，印度表示有興趣購(gòu)買圭亞那的Liza原油，與有關(guān)部門以及商業(yè)實(shí)體合作，達(dá)成一項(xiàng)有利于原油進(jìn)出口的協(xié)議。據(jù)了解，圭亞那還沒有就向印度出口原油做出確切的決定，印度自然資源部長(zhǎng)維克拉姆?巴拉特(Vickram Bharrat)表示，政府的主要目標(biāo)是以市場(chǎng)價(jià)格出售其原油份額，從而使其回報(bào)最大化。

　　這個(gè)南美國(guó)家將成為拉丁美洲地區(qū)的主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)，到2027年產(chǎn)量將超過(guò)100萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　值得一提的是，印度的石油和天然氣需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)近3倍，從2018年的2.29億噸增加到2040年的6.07億噸。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 Oil Now

　　原文如下：

　　India’s pandemic crisis won’t kill long-term oil demand, Liza Crude still on country’s radar

　　India has witnessed more than 300,000 new coronavirus cases per day for nearly two weeks in what is a growing humanitarian crisis that could see the outlook for oil consumption worsening in the short term, before rebounding later this year.

　　“Looking at the situation now, it could take a couple of months to stabilize,” Malhotra said. This quarter will be not so good for oil as regional lockdowns have restricted many activities. And there is more to come.

　　Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged leaders of the various states to focus on micro containment zones and use lockdowns only as a last resort. But many provinces are planning to implement regional lockdowns amid fears the situation could get worse.

　　Analytics has said that India would witness a year-on-year oil demand growth of 400,000 b/d in 2021, revised down from an earlier growth estimate of 440,000 b/d, as the country grapples with record COVID-19 cases.

　　Chris Midgley, , said last week that those numbers could possibly be revised down by another 20,000 b/d, but any further revision would depend on how the situation develops over the next few weeks.

　　But Midgley added that India would continue to reap the benefits of a robust world economy as industrial activity picks up across the globe. Oil demand could slow in the near term but there were enough conditions to believe that consumption would stage a robust recovery in the second half of 2021.

　　The world’s third-largest crude consumer and importer has expressed interest in buying Guyana’s Liza Crude as part of a long-term deal with the Guyanese government. The country is interested in working with authorities as well as commercial entities to forge an agreement that would facilitate these exports. OilNOW understands that no firm decision has yet been made by the Guyana government on crude exports to India. Natural Resources Minister, Vickram Bharrat, has told OilNOW the government’s primary objective is to sell its share of crude at market price where it will be able to maximise returns for the country.

　　The South American country is positioned to become a major oil producer in the Latin America region with output set to surpass the 1 million barrels per day mark by 2027.

　　India’s oil & gas demand is expected to increase nearly 3-fold from 229 million metric tons in 2018 to 607 million metric tons in 2040.

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