???? 據(jù)2月23日Rappler.com報(bào)道，盡管一些美國能源公司增加了鉆探量，但由于企業(yè)削減開支以減少債務(wù)和提高股東回報(bào)，預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)量仍將面臨壓力。歐佩克和美國石油公司認(rèn)為，由于美國主要石油生產(chǎn)商“凍結(jié)”產(chǎn)能，盡管油價(jià)不斷上漲，頁巖油供應(yīng)今年的反彈幅度有限，不過，這一決定將有助于歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國。

????歐佩克本月下調(diào)了2021年對(duì)美國致密油(又稱頁巖油)的產(chǎn)量預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)量將減少14萬桶/天，至716萬桶/天。

????美國政府預(yù)計(jì)，3月份頁巖油產(chǎn)量將下降約7.8萬桶/天至750萬桶/天，并預(yù)計(jì)年度產(chǎn)量也將出現(xiàn)下降。

????值得注意的是，歐佩克的這一預(yù)測是在德克薩斯州遭遇嚴(yán)寒天氣之前做出的。德州的嚴(yán)寒天氣導(dǎo)致油井關(guān)閉，限制了地區(qū)煉油廠的需求，而德州的石油產(chǎn)量占美國總產(chǎn)量的40%。

????歐佩克消息人士稱，頁巖油不會(huì)大幅反彈的情況，可能會(huì)讓歐佩克+更容易管理市場。

????但有消息人士表示，這個(gè)影響因素只是暫時(shí)的，不會(huì)是永久的。

????頁巖油生產(chǎn)商還擔(dān)心，歐佩克會(huì)很快向市場供應(yīng)更多的石油，以滿足需求的增加。

????頁巖油氣生產(chǎn)商切薩皮克能源公司(Chesapeake Energy Corporation)首席執(zhí)行官道格?勞勒(Doug Lawler)在接受采訪時(shí)表示:“在這個(gè)新時(shí)代，頁巖油氣生產(chǎn)商們需要一種不同的思維方式。在為我們的利益相關(guān)者和股東創(chuàng)造現(xiàn)金方面，我們需要更多的紀(jì)律和責(zé)任。”

????對(duì)于歐佩克來說，這將是一個(gè)可喜的進(jìn)展。2014-2016年油價(jià)下滑和部分由頁巖油產(chǎn)量上升導(dǎo)致的全球供應(yīng)過剩，對(duì)歐佩克來說是一個(gè)令人不安的經(jīng)歷。這導(dǎo)致了歐佩克+的成立，并于2017年開始減產(chǎn)。

????包括歐佩克、俄羅斯及其盟友在內(nèi)的歐佩克+正在緩慢解除去年因疫情導(dǎo)致價(jià)格和需求暴跌而實(shí)施的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的減產(chǎn)措施。該組織成員將于3月4日開會(huì)審議需求。目前來看，歷史不會(huì)重演。

????有歐佩克代表表示:“在過去10年或更長時(shí)間里，美國頁巖油氣是非歐佩克國家的關(guān)鍵供應(yīng)來源。如果會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種增長限制，我認(rèn)為供應(yīng)仍不會(huì)出現(xiàn)任何擔(dān)憂，因?yàn)槠渌胤降纳a(chǎn)商能夠滿足任何需求增長。”

????不過，歐佩克并不急于打開石油供應(yīng)的閘門。沙特阿拉伯能源部長阿卜杜勒阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼王子表示，石油生產(chǎn)國必須保持“極度謹(jǐn)慎”。歐佩克秘書長巴爾金多也表達(dá)了同樣的觀點(diǎn)：“在我們恢復(fù)石油市場平衡的努力中，美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)商是一個(gè)重要的利益相關(guān)者。在這方面，我們都有共同的責(zé)任。”

????值得一提的是，頁巖油產(chǎn)量通常會(huì)對(duì)價(jià)格信號(hào)做出迅速反應(yīng)，美國原油本月已觸及2020年1月以來的最高水平，突破每桶60美元。

????盡管最近幾周頁巖油公司增加了更多的鉆井平臺(tái)，但需求復(fù)蘇不溫不火，投資者要求減少債務(wù)的壓力，這使它們沒有急于完成新井的鉆探。

????經(jīng)紀(jì)商PVM oil Associates斯蒂芬?布倫諾克(Stephen Brennock)表示:“在這個(gè)價(jià)格點(diǎn)上，任何石油生產(chǎn)都是有利可圖的，即便是成本相對(duì)較高的美國頁巖地區(qū)。然而，盡管出現(xiàn)了這些積極的供應(yīng)增長信號(hào)，美國致密油產(chǎn)量遠(yuǎn)未恢復(fù)到新冠肺炎爆發(fā)前的水平。”

????頁巖油氣生產(chǎn)商先鋒自然資源公司(Pioneer Natural Resources Company)首席執(zhí)行官斯科特?謝菲爾德(Scott Sheffield)最近表示，預(yù)計(jì)小型企業(yè)將增加產(chǎn)量，但美國的總產(chǎn)量即使在每桶60美元的情況下也將保持不變，漲幅為1%。

????上周的嚴(yán)寒天氣將對(duì)石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)造成嚴(yán)重破壞，因?yàn)槭凸疽獞?yīng)對(duì)設(shè)備凍結(jié)和電力供應(yīng)不足的問題。美國最大的獨(dú)立石油生產(chǎn)商康菲石油公司(ConocoPhillips)表示，其在德克薩斯州的大部分石油產(chǎn)能仍處于停產(chǎn)狀態(tài)。

????但摩根大通分析師在一份報(bào)告中表示，油價(jià)上漲可能會(huì)加速頁巖板塊的復(fù)蘇。該銀行表示:“只要運(yùn)營商擁有足夠的已鉆但未壓裂的油井庫存，就應(yīng)該能夠輕松提高產(chǎn)量，同時(shí)控制資本支出。”這里的資本支出是指鉆井支出。

????美國能源信息署（EIA）對(duì)2022年的預(yù)測是：美國的供應(yīng)將進(jìn)一步增長，盡管目前可能還不足以給歐佩克+帶來多大的影響。

????PVM布倫諾克表示:“美國的石油產(chǎn)量不會(huì)很快回到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。但這并不是說，美國頁巖油產(chǎn)量有朝一日不會(huì)卷土重來，成為歐佩克的巨大挑戰(zhàn)。”

????王佳晶 摘譯自 Rappler.com

????原文如下：

????OPEC, US oil firms expect subdued shale rebound even as crude prices rise

????While some US energy firms have increased drilling, production is expected to remain under pressure as companies cut spending to reduce debt and boost shareholder returns The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and United States oil companies see a limited rebound in shale oil supply this year as top US producers freeze output despite rising prices, a decision that would help OPEC and its allies.

????OPEC this month cut its 2021 forecast for US tight crude, another term for shale, and expects production to decline by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 7.16 million bpd.

????The US government expects shale output in March to fall about 78,000 bpd to 7.5 million bpd and also sees an annual drop.

????The OPEC forecast preceded the freezing weather in Texas, home to 40% of US output, that has shut wells and curbed demand by regional oil refineries.

????The lack of a shale rebound could make it easier for OPEC and its allies to manage the market, according to OPEC sources.

????"This should be the case," said one of the OPEC sources, who declined to be identified. "But I don't think this factor will be permanent."

????While some US energy firms have increased drilling, production is expected to remain under pressure as companies cut spending to reduce debt and boost shareholder returns. Shale producers are also wary that increased drilling would quickly be met by OPEC returning more oil to the market.

????'More discipline'

????"In this new era, [shale] requires a different mindset," Doug Lawler, chief executive of shale pioneer Chesapeake Energy Corporation, said in an interview this month. "It requires more discipline and responsibility with respect to generating cash for our stakeholders and shareholders."

????That sentiment would be a welcome development for OPEC, for which a 2014-2016 price slide and global glut caused partly by rising shale output was an uncomfortable experience. This led to the creation of OPEC+, which began cutting output in 2017.

????OPEC+, which includes OPEC, Russia, and their allies, is in the process of slowly unwinding record output curbs made last year as prices and demand collapsed due to the pandemic. Alliance members will meet on March 4 to review demand. For now, it is not seeing history repeat itself.

????"US shale is the key non-OPEC supply in the past 10 years or more," said another OPEC delegate. "If such limitation of growth is now expected, I don't foresee any concerns as producers elsewhere can meet any demand growth."

????Still, OPEC is no rush to open the taps. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on February 17 oil producers must remain "extremely cautious."

????OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo echoed that sentiment.

????"US shale is an important stakeholder in our global efforts to restore balance to the oil market," he told Reuters. "We all have a shared responsibility in this regard."

????$60 oil helps

????Shale output usually responds rapidly to price signals and US crude has this month hit its highest level since January 2020, topping $60 a barrel.

????While shale companies have added more rigs in recent weeks, a tepid demand recovery and investor pressure to reduce debt has kept them from rushing to complete new wells.

????"At this price point, any oil production is profitable, especially the relatively high-cost US shale patch," said Stephen Brennock of broker PVM Oil Associates.

????"Yet despite these positive growth signals, US tight oil production is far from recovering its pre-COVID mojo."

????The chief executive of shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources Company, Scott Sheffield, recently said he expects small companies to increase output but in the aggregate US output will remain flat to 1% higher even at $60 per barrel.

????Production freeze

????Last week's severe cold will wreak havoc on oil and gas production as companies deal with frozen equipment and a lack of power to run operations. The largest US independent producer, ConocoPhillips, said on Thursday, February 18, the majority of its Texas production remained offline.

????But JPMorgan analysts said in a February 18 report that rising oil prices might prompt a quicker shale revival.

????"As long as operators have sufficient drilled but unfracked well inventory to complete, they should be able to easily grow production while keeping capex in check," the bank said, using a term for drilling spending.

????Forecasts for 2022 such as from the US Energy Information Administration are for more US supply growth, although perhaps not enough to cause problems for OPEC+ for now.

????"US oil output will not go back to pre-COVID levels any time soon," said PVM's Brennock. "But that is not to say that US shale will not one day return as a thorn in OPEC's side."