???? 據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)2月22日?qǐng)?bào)道，卡塔爾石油公司最近創(chuàng)下有史以來(lái)最大的LNG出口項(xiàng)目的新紀(jì)錄。到2026年，該國(guó)將超越澳大利亞，再次成為全球最大的液化天然氣供應(yīng)國(guó)。由于疫情導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定，該合同的簽訂被推遲了一年，隨著大規(guī)模擴(kuò)張，市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)供過(guò)于求，而且正在等待其投資決定的其他項(xiàng)目的可行性也將受到威脅。
????多年來(lái)，卡塔爾石油公司一直是全球液化天然氣行業(yè)的實(shí)際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。實(shí)行自我禁令旨在通過(guò)防止供過(guò)于求來(lái)確保長(zhǎng)期的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。目前，卡塔爾的年產(chǎn)量為7700萬(wàn)噸（mtpa）。通過(guò)第一階段的擴(kuò)建，到 2026年，該國(guó)的產(chǎn)能將增至1.1億噸。到2026年，在第二階段工程完成后，產(chǎn)能將上升到1.26億噸/年。
????卡塔爾決定解除禁令是澳大利亞和美國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇的直接結(jié)果。此外，俄羅斯也制定了重大計(jì)劃，加入了這場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。增加的天然氣供應(yīng)犧牲了卡塔爾石油公司的市場(chǎng)份額。據(jù)伍德麥肯齊公司研究總監(jiān)賈爾斯·法勒（Giles Farrer）說(shuō)，“卡塔爾正在追求市場(chǎng)份額。這項(xiàng)最終投資決定可能會(huì)增加其他預(yù)FID液化天然氣供應(yīng)商的壓力，他們可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)卡塔爾在新市場(chǎng)站穩(wěn)了腳跟。”
????預(yù)計(jì)到2035年，全球需求將從2018年的3.15億噸增加到5.6億噸至6億噸。預(yù)計(jì)到2035年，新產(chǎn)能將增加1億噸至1.4億噸。目前，正在等待最終投資決定的項(xiàng)目數(shù)量達(dá)到空前的100個(gè)，年產(chǎn)量為1.1億噸。麥肯錫表示，這些項(xiàng)目需要達(dá)到每百萬(wàn)英熱單位(MMBTU) 7美元的盈虧平衡價(jià)格才能保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。
????在這方面，與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手相比，卡塔爾的液化天然氣行業(yè)由于生產(chǎn)成本低而具有強(qiáng)大的優(yōu)勢(shì)。世界上最大的天然氣田——南帕爾斯/北穹頂?shù)牧畠r(jià)原料氣，極大地提高了卡塔爾石油的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，盡管中東地區(qū)酷熱難耐，然而，俄羅斯的北極氣候使得液化成本保持在較低水平成為可能，加上廉價(jià)的原料氣，Novatek的設(shè)施也極具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。
????這意味著，在目前預(yù)期的需求增長(zhǎng)下，許多設(shè)想中的項(xiàng)目將無(wú)法完成。然而，有理由相信需求的增長(zhǎng)可能超過(guò)目前的預(yù)期。首先，世界各地區(qū)可再生能源的增長(zhǎng)增加了平衡電網(wǎng)的靈活性需求。目前，天然氣是一個(gè)很好的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者，由于其廣泛的可用性和相對(duì)較低的二氧化碳排放。
????其次，碳排放上限降低了煤炭的長(zhǎng)期競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，有利于減少大約50%二氧化碳排放量的天然氣。中國(guó)是世界上最大的溫室氣體排放國(guó)，幾周前剛剛啟動(dòng)了碳交易市場(chǎng)。
????最后，隨著工業(yè)化進(jìn)程的加快，發(fā)展中國(guó)家正面臨著一場(chǎng)環(huán)境危機(jī)。因此，有理由預(yù)計(jì)，對(duì)清潔氣體的需求可以抵消更多的污染燃料，如煤炭，這在許多國(guó)家的能源結(jié)構(gòu)中占主導(dǎo)地位。????然而，目前仍不清楚需求將以多快的速度增長(zhǎng)。由于沒(méi)有一個(gè)專門從事與歐佩克（OPEC）相當(dāng)?shù)奶烊粴馍a(chǎn)的組織，也沒(méi)有一個(gè)與沙特阿拉伯相當(dāng)?shù)膿u擺不定的生產(chǎn)商，使得液化天然氣市場(chǎng)極不穩(wěn)定。此外，高昂的前期成本和較長(zhǎng)的開(kāi)發(fā)時(shí)間使投資具有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。當(dāng)一個(gè)項(xiàng)目完成時(shí)，市場(chǎng)可能已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化。
????因此，預(yù)計(jì)這100個(gè)預(yù)FID項(xiàng)目中的許多項(xiàng)目在未來(lái)十年無(wú)法達(dá)到終點(diǎn)線。
????壽琳玲 編譯自 今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)
????原文如下:
????Qatar's LNG Megaprojects Are Making Markets Increasingly Competitive
????Qatar Petroleum’s recently set a new record for the largest LNG export project ever. By 2026, the country will once again become the world's largest supplier of liquefied natural gas by overtaking Australia. The signing of the contract was delayed for a year due to economic uncertainty as a direct consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic. With the mega-expansion, the market could be oversupplied for years and the feasibility of other projects that are awaiting their investment decision could be in jeopardy.
????For years Qatar Petroleum was the de-facto leader of the global LNG industry. The self-imposed moratorium was intended to ensure competitiveness in the long-term by preventing oversupply. Currently, Qatar produces 77 million tons per annum (mtpa). With the first phase expansion, the country will increase its capacity to 110 mtpa by 2026. By 2026 this should rise to 126 mtpa after completion of the second phase.
????Qatar’s decision to lift the moratorium is a direct consequence of increased competition by primarily Australia and the U.S. Also, Russia has entered the fray with major plans of its own. The added supply went at the expense of Qatar Petroleum which was losing market share. According to Giles Farrer, research director at Wood Mackenzie, “Qatar is pursuing market share. This FID (final investment decision) is likely to increase pressure on other pre-FID LNG suppliers, who may find Qatar secured a foothold in new markets.”
????Global demand is expected to increase to between 560 mtpa and 600 mtpa by 2035 up from 315 mtpa in 2018. The expectation is that an additional 100 mtpa to 140 mtpa of new capacity will be required until 2035. Currently, an unprecedented amount of 100 projects with a production capacity of 1,100 mtpa are awaiting FID. According to McKinsey, these projects require a break-even price of $7 per million British thermal units (MMBTU) to maintain competitiveness.
????In this regard, Qatar's LNG industry has a strong advantage due to low production costs compared to the competition. The cheap feed gas from the world's single largest natural gas field, South Pars/North Dome, significantly improves Qatar Petroleum's competitiveness despite the excruciating heat of the Middle East. Russia's arctic climate, however, makes it possible to keep liquefactions costs low. Coupled with cheap feed gas, Novatek's facilities are also highly competitive.
????This means that many of the envisioned projects won’t make it to the finish line under the current expected demand growth. However, there are reasons to believe that demand could increase more than currently expected. First, the growth of renewables in all regions of the world increases the need for flexibility to balance the grid. Currently, natural gas is a good contender due to its wide availability and relatively low CO2 emissions.
????Second, carbon ceilings decrease the long-term competitiveness of coal in favor of gas that emits approximately 50 percent less CO2. China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, saw the launch of its carbon trading market just a few weeks ago.
????Lastly, with rapid industrialization developing countries are facing an environmental crisis . Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that demand for cleaner gas could offset more pollutant fuels such as coal which is dominant in the energy mix of many countries.????However, it remains unclear how fast demand will grow. The absence of an organization dedicated to natural gas comparable to OPEC and a swing-producer comparable to Saudi Arabia makes the LNG market highly volatile. Also, the high upfront costs and long-development time make investments risky. By the time a project is completed, the market could have transformed.
????Therefore, expect many of those 100 pre-FID projects to fail in reaching the finish line in the next decade.
