據(jù)2月1日OGJ報道，在2020年年中觸及歷史低點后，全球天然氣價格出現(xiàn)反彈，漲幅達4-10倍。高企的現(xiàn)貨價格應(yīng)會回落，但摩根士丹利重申:到2023年，LNG供應(yīng)將出現(xiàn)短缺。價格波動性導(dǎo)致了市場混亂，創(chuàng)造了全球性的交叉投資機會。
與摩根士丹利2019年發(fā)布的展望一致，過去兩年，日益增長的液化天然氣貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造了一個全球互聯(lián)的天然氣市場，并出現(xiàn)了一波供應(yīng)過剩的浪潮。
在2019年天然氣價格下跌50%，并在2020年初進一步暴跌60%之后，去年5月，全球主要天然氣基準價格在大約2美元/百萬英熱的水平上實現(xiàn)了幾十年來的首次平穩(wěn)。自那以后，汽油價格大幅上漲。歐洲天然氣價格(TTF)上漲了4倍以上，而亞洲LNG現(xiàn)貨價格(JKM)上漲了10倍以上，達到了超過25美元/百萬英熱的歷史最高水平。
摩根士丹利表示，需求的增長速度是供應(yīng)的兩倍，這支持了持續(xù)多年的LNG市場熱潮。但新冠肺炎疫情極大地改變了許多大宗商品市場，重新設(shè)定了許多能源價值鏈的前景。對于液化天然氣，它的項目批準數(shù)量創(chuàng)紀錄，而其持續(xù)供過于求的趨勢也發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變。
2020年對2025年天然氣的總供給預(yù)期下降了15%，而需求卻非常有彈性，只下降了3%，仍然顯示出強勁的結(jié)構(gòu)性增長。雖然最近的油價飆升導(dǎo)致2021年夏季的價格過高，造成了一些短期的價格下行風險，但一個新的多年上行周期可能已經(jīng)開始。到2022年，市場將恢復(fù)平衡，到2023年將出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺，將導(dǎo)致2020年至2023年期間，液化天然氣價格兩次上漲，這也意味著未來一年的期貨價格將上漲20%以上。
王佳晶 摘譯自O(shè)GJ
Morgan Stanley: A new cycle begins for global gas, LNG
After hitting historic lows mid-2020, global gas prices staged a rally, up 4-10 times. Elevated spot prices should moderate, but Morgan Stanley reiterates its call for a multiyear LNG recovery with a supply shortfall by 2023.
After hitting historic lows mid-2020, global gas prices staged a rally, up 4-10 times. Elevated spot prices should moderate, but Morgan Stanley reiterates its call for a multiyear LNG recovery with a supply shortfall by 2023. Volatility has led to dislocations, creating global cross-asset opportunities.
In-line with Morgan Stanley’s outlook set forth in 2019, growing trade of LNG has created a globally interconnected gas market and a wave of oversupply through much of the last 2 years.
After a 50% price decline in 2019 and a further 60% collapse through the beginning of 2020, key global gas benchmarks achieved parity for the first time in decades last May at around $2/MMbtu. Since then, gas prices have staged a significant rally. European prices (TTF) have increased more than four times while spot Asian LNG (JKM) have increased more than 10 times, reaching a record high of over $25/MMbtu.
According to Morgan Stanley, demand is growing two times faster than supply, supporting a multiyear recovery. COVID-19 drastically altered many commodity markets, resetting the outlook across many parts of the energy value chain. For LNG, it broke a trend of record project sanctioning and persistent oversupply.
“Over the past year, our expectations for total supply have fallen by 15% through 2025, while demand has been strikingly resilient - down only 3% and still exhibiting strong structural growth. While the recent price spike has left summer 2021 prices over-extended, creating some near-term price risk to the downside, a new multiyear up-cycle has likely begun. The market is set to return to balance by 2022 before shifting into a supply shortfall by 2023, driving a 2-time increase in LNG prices 2020-23 and implying above 20% upside to out-year futures prices.”
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