???? 據(jù)2月3日紐約時(shí)報(bào)報(bào)道，大型石油公司在2020年因疫情損失了數(shù)十億美元，它們面臨著如何適應(yīng)氣候變化和監(jiān)管法規(guī)的普遍問題，大型石油公司可能無法再稱之為“巨頭”了。

????埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)、英國石油公司(BP)和其他大型石油公司去年總共損失了數(shù)百億美元，創(chuàng)下多年來最糟糕的業(yè)績，對一些公司來說，也是數(shù)十年來最糟糕的業(yè)績。

????這在很大程度上要?dú)w咎于新冠肺炎疫情。隨著各地區(qū)紛紛出臺(tái)出行限制措施，人們呆在家里，汽油、柴油和航空燃料的需求減少。加上人們對氣候變化的擔(dān)憂日益加劇、監(jiān)管更加嚴(yán)格，以及電動(dòng)汽車和卡車的興起，這樣“痛苦”的年份可能會(huì)變得更加普遍，迫使人們對上個(gè)世紀(jì)大部分時(shí)間主導(dǎo)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的汽車行業(yè)進(jìn)行清算。通用汽車（generalmotors）上周進(jìn)一步提高了對汽車業(yè)的投資，稱其目標(biāo)是在2035年前廢除內(nèi)燃機(jī)，只銷售電動(dòng)汽車。

????石油行業(yè)正在緩慢地向清潔能源主導(dǎo)的未來過渡。英國石油、殼牌、道達(dá)爾和其他歐洲公司在減少石油消耗的同時(shí)，也在海上風(fēng)能和太陽能領(lǐng)域投入了大量資源。但這些投資不太可能在數(shù)年內(nèi)得到回報(bào)，甚至可能是10年或20年內(nèi)都無法看到回報(bào)。

????美國石油巨頭從化石燃料轉(zhuǎn)向其他行業(yè)的速度要慢得多，但它們正感受到來自投資者的越來越大的壓力。埃克森美孚表示，將投資30億美元于一項(xiàng)名為“低碳解決方案”(Low Carbon Solutions)的新業(yè)務(wù)，該業(yè)務(wù)最初將專注于碳捕獲和封存項(xiàng)目。

????埃克森美孚報(bào)告稱，2020年該公司虧損224億美元，而2019年盈利143億美元。大部分虧損來自193億美元的資產(chǎn)減記，其中包括該公司在能源價(jià)格較高時(shí)收購的天然氣業(yè)務(wù)。

????英國石油公司表示，2020年虧損57億美元，這是十年來的首次虧損。2019年，該公司盈利100億美元。現(xiàn)在，該公司將從約7萬名員工中裁減至少1萬個(gè)職位，并出售其認(rèn)為不再需要的約250億美元業(yè)務(wù)。

????美國最大的獨(dú)立生產(chǎn)商康菲石油公司(Conoco Phillips)2020年虧損27億美元。雪佛龍表示，該公司虧損55億美元，而2019年盈利了29億美元。

????盡管如此，石油高管們在談到未來時(shí)仍試圖表現(xiàn)出樂觀的語氣，他們辯稱，隨著疫苗推廣的加速，以及經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)從疫情最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)期復(fù)蘇，公司的業(yè)務(wù)將在2021年反彈。

????埃克森美孚首席執(zhí)行官Darren W. Woods表示："我們認(rèn)為未來會(huì)有更多機(jī)會(huì)，我對我們今天的表現(xiàn)感到滿意。從第一季度來看，已經(jīng)超出了預(yù)期。”

????在去年的大部分時(shí)間里，投資者對埃克森美孚感到不滿，華爾街盛傳該公司將削減股息以保留現(xiàn)金。與去年1月初相比，該公司股價(jià)暴跌了大約一半，值得一提的是，在2020年11月，該公司股價(jià)跌至31美元，為近20年來的最低水平。

????目前，埃克森美孚的股價(jià)已回升至46美元左右，主要是因?yàn)樽罱鼛字苣茉磧r(jià)格強(qiáng)勁反彈。今年石油價(jià)格上漲了近10%，東北部的暴風(fēng)雪推高了用于家庭和企業(yè)供暖的天然氣價(jià)格。埃克森美孚的股息現(xiàn)在看來是安全的，除了沖銷之外，埃克森美孚在去年第四季度還獲得了少量利潤。

????戰(zhàn)略能源與經(jīng)濟(jì)研究公司(Strategic Energy and Economy Research)總裁邁克爾·c·林奇(Michael C. Lynch)表示：“這個(gè)行業(yè)經(jīng)歷了地獄般的時(shí)期，然后又恢復(fù)過來了。他們基本上挺過了他們所面臨過的最糟糕的環(huán)境，從現(xiàn)在開始，幾乎可以肯定的是，價(jià)格和需求都會(huì)上升。”

????高盛(Goldman Sachs)預(yù)測，油價(jià)可能會(huì)再漲10美元，到7月份最高可達(dá)每桶65美元。這將是一次顯著的復(fù)蘇，而在2020年的大部分時(shí)間里，油價(jià)還不到這一水平的一半，盡管它仍將遠(yuǎn)低于大約10年前的價(jià)格，當(dāng)時(shí)每桶石油的價(jià)格超過140美元，石油公司也創(chuàng)造了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的利潤。

????近年來，石油行業(yè)不斷遭受沖擊，在2007年12月開始的衰退期間里，油價(jià)暴跌。2015年，歐佩克向市場大量供應(yīng)原油，以削減美國的產(chǎn)量。2019年，疫情肆虐。該行業(yè)的困境迫使許多公司裁員并削減股息。幾十家曾經(jīng)輝煌的企業(yè)，比如切薩皮克能源公司，近年來宣布破產(chǎn)。

????即使現(xiàn)在情況似乎有所改善，該行業(yè)的前景仍然不確定。由于新型冠狀病毒變種的出現(xiàn)，目前尚不清楚美國、歐洲和其他主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體將以多快的速度控制病毒傳播，另外還有更大的關(guān)于氣候變化的問題。

????英國石油首席執(zhí)行官伯納德·魯尼(Bernard Looney)敦促公司在海上風(fēng)力發(fā)電場和氫生產(chǎn)等領(lǐng)域大舉投資，為世界減少石油和天然氣的使用做好準(zhǔn)備。但他承認(rèn)，其中一些投資可能要到21世紀(jì)30年代才能帶來回報(bào)，在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，該公司仍將依賴石油和天然氣獲取利潤。

????盡管如此，魯尼表示，他限制在美國境內(nèi)開采新的石油和天然氣的決定表示支持。

????此外，埃克森美孚采取了不同的策略，其首席執(zhí)行官承認(rèn)，石油行業(yè)將面臨更多動(dòng)蕩。

????Woods表示：“我們不知道未來價(jià)格將如何走向，我們的計(jì)劃是重建資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，這樣我們就能在未來承受任何沖擊。”

????王佳晶 摘譯自 紐約時(shí)報(bào)

????原文如下：

????After a Bruising Year, the Oil Industry Confronts a Diminished Future

????Big oil companies lost billions in 2020 because of the pandemic and face broad questions about how they will adapt to climate change and regulations.

????Big Oil isn’t so big anymore.

????Exxon Mobil, BP and other large oil companies collectively lost tens of billions of dollars last year, posting their worst performance in years and, for some companies, in decades.

????The pandemic was largely to blame. It sapped demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel as countries and states locked down and people stayed home. But such painful years could become more commonplace as growing concerns about climate change, tighter regulations, and the rise of electric cars and trucks force a reckoning for an industry that has dominated the global economy over much of the last century. General Motors further raised the stakes for the industry last week when it said it aimed to do away with internal combustion engines and sell only electric cars by 2035.

????The oil industry is slowly transitioning to a future dominated by cleaner energy. BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total and other European companies are investing considerable resources in offshore wind and solar energy while cutting back on oil. But those investments are unlikely to pay off for years, maybe even a decade or two.

????The American oil majors have been far slower to pivot from fossil fuels, but they are feeling increasing pressure from investors to change their business models. Exxon said this week that it was investing $3 billion in a new business called Low Carbon Solutions, which will initially focus on carbon capture and sequestration projects.

????On Tuesday, Exxon reported that it lost $22.4 billion in 2020, compared with a profit of $14.3 billion in 2019. Much of the loss came from a $19.3 billion write-down of assets, including natural gas operations that the company acquired when energy prices were much higher.

????And BP said on Tuesday that it lost $5.7 billion last year — its first loss in a decade. The company made a $10 billion profit in 2019. Now the company is cutting at least 10,000 jobs from a work force of about 70,000 people and selling some $25 billion in businesses it decided it didn’t need anymore.

????Conoco Phillips, the largest American independent producer, lost $2.7 billion for the year. Chevron said last week that it had lost $5.5 billion, down from a profit of $2.9 billion in 2019.

????Still, oil executives tried to strike an optimistic tone when speaking about the future, arguing that their business would bounce back in 2021 as vaccine distribution accelerated and economic activity recovered from the depths of the pandemic.

????“We see more opportunity down the road,” Darren W. Woods, Exxon’s chief executive, who normally skips the company’s quarterly conference call with Wall Street analysts, said on the call Tuesday. “I feel good about where we are today. As I look at the first quarter we are already ahead of where we thought we would be.”

????Through much of the last year, investors soured on Exxon, and Wall Street was rife with rumors that the company would slash its dividend to preserve cash. The share price had plummeted by roughly half from early last January — sinking as low as $31 in November, its lowest level in nearly 20 years.

????But Exxon’s share price has climbed back to about $46, principally because energy prices have recovered strongly in recent weeks. Oil prices are up by nearly 10 percent this year, and the blizzard in the Northeast is driving up natural gas prices because the fuel is used to heat homes and businesses. Exxon’s dividend now appears safe. And aside from the write-downs, Exxon made a small profit in the last three months of the year.

????“The industry has been to hell and back,” said Michael C. Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economy Research. “They’ve mostly survived the worst circumstances they have ever faced, and it’s all but certain things will look up from here in terms of price and demand.”

????Goldman Sachs has predicted that oil prices could rise another $10 a barrel, to as high as $65 by July. That would be a remarkable recovery from prices that languished at less than half that for much of 2020, though it would remain far below prices of a decade or so ago, when a barrel of oil surpassed $140 and oil companies were making record profits.

????The industry has suffered repeated shocks in recent years, with prices plummeting during the recession that started in December 2007, again in 2015 when OPEC flooded the market with crude to undercut American production, and last year, when the pandemic took hold.

????The industry’s pain forced many companies to lay off employees and cut dividends. Dozens of once high-flying businesses, like Chesapeake Energy, declared bankruptcy in recent years.

????Even now, when conditions seem to be improving, the industry’s prospects remain uncertain. Because of the emergence of new coronavirus variants, it is not clear how quickly the United States, Europe and other major economies will get virus spread under control. And then there are the larger questions about climate change.

????BP’s chief executive, Bernard Looney, has pushed his company to invest heavily in areas like offshore wind farms and hydrogen production to prepare for a world that uses less oil and gas. But he acknowledged on Tuesday that the payoff from some of these investments might not come until the 2030s and that the company would remain reliant on oil and gas for its profits for some time.

????Still, Mr. Looney said in an interview on Tuesday that he welcomed President Biden’s commitment to fighting climate change. The new president has signed executive orders directing the government to raise fuel economy standards and limit new oil and gas drilling on federal lands.

????Exxon has taken a different tack. But even its chief executive appeared to acknowledge that the industry was in for more turbulence.

????“We don’t know where prices are going to go,” Mr. Woods told analysts. “Our plan is to rebuild the balance sheet so we can be in a position going forward to absorb any shocks that come in the future.”