???? 據Oil Now 3月29日報道，Rystad Energy在一份報告中表示，對于石油和天然氣公司來說，2021年是一個積極的開始，實際上這可能是該行業創收最好的一年。在過去的12個月里，油價大幅上漲，目前交易價格為60美元。同時，公司繼續關注資本紀律，繼去年投資下降30％后，今年的投資略有增加。油價的上漲和投資的限制導致石油和天然氣生產商的自由現金流（FCF）大大增加。
????Rystad Energy稱去年運營現金減少了近2000億美元，降幅約為35％。這意味著這些公司可用于開展新活動和向其所有者支付現金的現金較少。而去年的投資也下降了，下降了近1100億美元，降幅約為30％。
????今年運營現金預計會卷土重來，在Rystad Energy的基礎案例中，布倫特原油價格為每桶54美元，上市公司的運營現金預計將達到5000億美元左右，比去年增長了30％。
????“然而用于投資的現金預計今年不會恢復，并且可能會繼續與去年持平。” 總部位于挪威的咨詢集團表示。
????無論能源轉型的情況如何，Rystad Energy預計全球石油需求將在2028年達到每天1.02億桶的峰值，然后在2050年下降至約6200萬桶。但重要的是目前供應量不足以滿足這一需求。因此，邊境盆地的勘探是關鍵，同時也伴隨著風險。
????Rystad Energy表示：“我們已基于多個參數分析了與邊界勘探相關的風險和影響，包括石油系統、環境和政治因素，以及公司的興趣與否。
????圭亞那的低盈虧平衡價格、高質量原油和有利的投資環境使其成為深水勘探和生產的首選目的地， 這種情況在美國石油巨頭埃克森美孚的帶領下有增無減。
????該公司最近承包了其第六艘鉆井船——Noble Sam Croft，用于今年的生產和評估鉆井財富。分析師稱，這將是圭亞那海上鉆井的最高紀錄。
????這家石油巨頭已經發現了90多億桶原油，它不僅在高產的Stabroek區塊，還在其鄰近的土地（例如Canje區塊）尋求更多石油。目前Canje區塊已經在進行2021年的三口井計劃。
????陳可可 摘譯自 Oil Now
????原文如下：
????Cash flow bonanza for upstream industry in 2021, Guyana remains advantaged
????The year 2021 has started out on a positive note for oil and gas companies – in fact, this might be the best year yet in terms of generating cash for the industry, Rystad Energy said in a report. Oil prices have strengthened considerably over the last 12 months and are currently trading in the $60s. Simultaneously companies are continuing to focus on capital discipline, have made only a modest increase in investments this year, following the 30% drop last year. The oil price growth and investment restraint have resulted in a considerable increase in free cash flows (FCF) for the oil and gas producers.
????“Last year, cash from operations dropped almost $200 billion or around 35%. This implies that the companies had less cash available to finance new activity and pay out cash to their owners,” Rystad Energy said. “As a result, investments also dropped last year, falling by almost $110 billion or around 30%.”
????This year, the cash from operations is expected to make a comeback, and in Rystad Energy’s base case with Brent price at $54 per barrel (bbl), the cash from operations for public companies is expected to reach around $500 billion, an increase of more than 30% compared to last year.
????“However, the cash going into investments is not expected to recover this year and is likely to continue at the same level as last year,” the Norway-based consultancy group said.
????Regardless of energy transition scenarios, Rystad Energy expects global oil demand will peak at 102 million barrels per day in 2028, before declining to about 62 million bpd by 2050. Significant, however, is that available supply falls short of meeting this demand. Therefore, exploration of frontier basins is key – and it comes with risks.
????“We have analyzed the risks and impact associated with frontier exploration based on multiple parameters, including the petroleum system, environmental and political factors, as well as interest – or lack thereof – from companies,” Rystad Energy stated.
????Guyana’s low breakeven prices, high quality crude and favourable investment climate have made it a preferred destination for deepwater exploration and production, and this is continuing unabated, led by U.S oil major ExxonMobil.
????The company recently contracted its 6th drill ship – the Noble Sam Croft – for a production and appraisal drilling bonanza this year which analyst say will be a record for Guyana offshore.
????The oil major has already found more than 9 billion barrels of crude and is gunning for more, not just at the prolific Stabroek Block, but at its adjacent acreages, such as the Canje Block where a three-well programme for 2021 is already underway.
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