據4月19日Oil Now報道，油氣行業為實現巴黎氣候目標而采取的行動，將顛覆石油和天然氣價格。根據伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）提出的能源轉型加速方案（AET-2），所有國內和國際石油公司都將面臨衰退，該行業的資產減值、破產或重組規模將遠遠超過2020年。
伍德麥肯茲副總裁Ann-Louise Hittle表示：“如果我們采取行動，把全球變暖控制在巴黎協議規定的2°C以內，能源結構將會改變——而且會發生深刻的改變。我們的AET-2方案只是一個方案，而不是我們的基本預測。這是基于我們對自然資源部門的基本分析，對如何達成巴黎協議的一種解釋。但即便如此，油氣行業也不能太過自信。強有力的氣候變化政策和迅速革新的技術帶來的風險太大了。”
根據AET-2方案，石油需求將大幅下降，油價也將隨之大幅下降。到2050年，歐佩克的石油市場份額將超過50%，但其對市場的控制力將下降。
未來，石油價格或將大幅下降。
需求的急劇下降使這些主要產油國無法像今天這樣管理市場、支撐價格。值得一提的是，盡管失去了定價能力，低成本的歐佩克產油國仍是全球核心的石油供應國。
因此，油價在21世紀20年代末期將開始下滑。根據AET-2方案，預計到2030年，布倫特原油的平均價格將從目前的60美元/桶-70美元/桶，降至40美元/桶。到2050年，布倫特原油價格可能會跌至10美元/桶-18美元/桶。然而，天然氣需求預計將保持彈性。
伍德麥肯茲的設想將見證石油巨頭的終結和能源巨頭的崛起。財務實力雄厚的綜合性公司加快了他們的投資計劃，用可再生能源、氫和CCS的現金流來補充不斷減少的上游收入。
該咨詢公司對能源巨頭新能源戰略的基準分析顯示，AET-2的三大技術支柱是可再生能源行業的新鮮血液，是CCS領域的領軍者，是氫能源方面的先行者。未來幾年，巨額現金流的誘人預期，可能會導致一些國際石油公司和國家石油公司推遲能源轉型行動，但在AET-2情景模擬下，推遲能源轉型行動不是一個可持續的企業戰略。
王佳晶 摘譯自 Oil Now
原文如下：
WoodMac sees US$10 Brent oil coming, oil majors facing decline on scale never before seen
The action to achieve Paris climate goals will upend oil and gas prices. Under consultancy group Wood Mackenzie’s Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario (AET-2), all National and International Oil Companies face decline, and the sector will see asset impairments and bankruptcy or restructuring on a scale far greater than that of 2020.
“If we move to keep global warming to the 2°C limit set by the Paris Agreement, the energy matrix will change – and change profoundly,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President, Macro Oils, at WoodMac.
She added: “Our AET-2 scenario is a scenario, not our base-case forecast. It is one interpretation of how the Paris Agreement could be achieved, based on our fundamental analysis across the natural resource sectors.
“Even so, the oil and gas industry cannot afford to be complacent. The risks associated with robust climate-change policy and rapidly changing technology are too great.”
Under WoodMac’s AET-2 scenario, oil demand will drop significantly, and with it, oil prices. OPEC has an oil-market share of more than 50% by 2050, but less control.
Price fall
The steep fall in demand prevents those key oil producers from managing the market and supporting prices in the way it does today. Despite losing their price-setting ability, however, low-cost Middle East OPEC producers remain core providers of oil.
Consequently, oil prices begin to slip later this decade. By 2030, under AET-2, we would expect Brent to average US$40 per barrel (bbl), down from US$60 to US$70/bbl currently. By 2050, Brent may slide to US$10 to US$18/bbl. Gas demand, however, is expected to remain resilient.
WoodMac’s scenario would see the end of Big Oil and the rise of Big Energy. Financially strong integrated companies step up their investment plans to supplement dwindling upstream revenue with new cash flow from renewables, hydrogen and CCS.
The consultancy group’s benchmarking of the majors’ new energy strategies shows that, on the three technological pillars of AET-2, they are latecomers to renewables, are leaders in CCS and, as large consumers, enjoy a potential early-mover advantage in integrating hydrogen.
“The tantalising hope of a few more years of windfall cash flows may lead some IOCs and NOCs to defer action, but delay will not be a sustainable corporate strategy under the AET-2 scenario,” WoodMac said.
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