據(jù)烴加工新聞5月5日消息稱，多邊發(fā)展金融機構(gòu)阿拉伯石油投資公司（APICORP）在其《2021-2025年中東和北非地區(qū)能源投資展望》中估計，未來五年（2021年至2025年），中東和北非地區(qū)的總體規(guī)劃和承諾投資將超過8050億美元，比去年預(yù)測的7920億美元增加130億美元。
該報告將這一溫和增長歸因于幾個因素:對全球GDP反彈的強勁信心、不斷增長的能源需求、以及該地區(qū)可再生能源的加速發(fā)展。根據(jù)目前的估計，僅在2021年，中東和北非地區(qū)的太陽能裝機容量就將增加3吉瓦，是2020年的兩倍，未來5年將增加20吉瓦。
該地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟預(yù)測表明，大宗商品價格和出口將推動大多數(shù)中東和北非地區(qū)國家在2021年預(yù)期的反彈。
APICORP首席執(zhí)行官Ahmed Ali Attiga博士說：“ APICORP的《2021-2025年中東和北非地區(qū)能源投資展望》表明，隨著大多數(shù)中東和北非地區(qū)國家在2021年恢復(fù)GDP增長，能源轉(zhuǎn)型沒有放緩的跡象，能源行業(yè)在投資方面正進入一個相對穩(wěn)定的時期。我們預(yù)計，在公共部門持續(xù)投資和需求上升的支持下，能源行業(yè)將從新冠肺炎大流行的影響中緩慢而穩(wěn)定地復(fù)蘇。”
預(yù)計2021-2025年中東和北非地區(qū)的承諾天然氣投資總額將達到750億美元，比之前的預(yù)期減少95億美元。下降的原因是多個大型項目將在2020年完工，而且在天然氣產(chǎn)能過剩的時代，各國對新項目的承諾更加謹慎。
卡塔爾、沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克是中東和北非地區(qū)天然氣投資最多的三個國家。
與此同時，2021-2025年計劃投資保持相對穩(wěn)定，為1330億美元，表明一旦宏觀環(huán)境改善，該地區(qū)有意恢復(fù)其天然氣產(chǎn)能建設(shè)，尤其是特別是沙特阿拉伯、阿聯(lián)酋、阿曼和阿爾及利亞雄心勃勃的非常規(guī)天然氣開發(fā)項目。
朱佳妮 摘譯自 烴加工新聞
原文如下：
APICORP: MENA energy investments to exceed US$805 billion over next five years
The Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP), a multilateral development financial institution, estimates in its MENA Energy Investment Outlook 2021-2025, that overall planned and committed investments in the MENA region will exceed US$805 billion over the next five years (2021–2025) – a US$13 billion increase from the US$792 billion estimate in last year’s five-year outlook.
The report attributes this modest rise to several factors: A strong confidence in the rebound of global GDP, rising energy demand, and the accelerated pace of renewables in the region. Per current estimates, MENA will add 3GW of installed solar power capacity in 2021 alone – double that of 2020 – and 20GW over the next five years.
The region’s economic forecasts suggest that commodity prices and exports will drive the rebound expected for most MENA countries in 2021.
Dr. Ahmed Ali Attiga, Chief Executive Officer of APICORP, said: “APICORP’s MENA Energy Investment Outlook 2021-2025 indicates that energy industries are entering a period of relative stability in terms of investments as most MENA countries return to GDP growth in 2021 and the energy transition showing no signs of slowing down. We anticipate a slow but steady recovery of the energy sector from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, supported by continued investment from the public sector and an upswing in demand.”
Committed gas investments in MENA for the period 2021-2025 are expected to total US$75 billion – US$9.5 billion less than the previous outlook. The decline is attributed to the completion of several megaprojects in 2020 and countries being more cautious to new project commitments in an era of gas overcapacity.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq are the top three MENA countries in terms of committed gas investments.
Planned investments meanwhile held relatively steady at US$133 billion for 2021-2025, signalling the region’s appetite for resuming its natural gas capacity build-up – particularly the ambitious unconventional gas developments in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, and Algeria – once macro conditions improve.
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