據(jù)道瓊斯5月12日消息，歐佩克周二表示，今年美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量將再次下降，盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)廣泛回升，但頁巖油行業(yè)的產(chǎn)量幾乎沒有出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇的跡象。

　　在其備受關(guān)注的月度市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中，歐佩克將2021年非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期下調(diào)20萬桶/日降至70萬桶/日。

　　歐佩克稱，加拿大、挪威、巴西將推動(dòng)非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)原油供應(yīng)的整體增長(zhǎng)，但持續(xù)低迷的資本支出和2月得州意外遭遇的冬季暴風(fēng)雪意味著，繼去年每日減少80萬桶之后，今年美國(guó)原油供應(yīng)料將減少10萬桶/日。

　　盡管歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)今年來自非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)的石油供應(yīng)將增加，但該組織在報(bào)告中表示，“特別是投資水平的不確定性依然存在，這預(yù)計(jì)將決定未來幾年非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)的石油供應(yīng)前景。”

　　歐佩克在報(bào)告中維持2021年全球石油需求預(yù)期不變。歐佩克預(yù)測(cè)，今年石油消費(fèi)量將增加600萬桶/日升至9,650萬桶/日，全球石油需求量較抗疫限制措施實(shí)施前減少3.5%，這些措施致使工廠關(guān)閉，飛機(jī)停飛，人們居家避疫。

　　后疫情時(shí)代的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇已然推動(dòng)石油需求回暖，但由于各國(guó)政府在控制新冠病例數(shù)和推進(jìn)疫苗接種計(jì)劃方面取得的成果各異，近幾個(gè)月來全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇情況也不盡相同。

　　雖然最近幾個(gè)月印度和巴西新冠疫情卷土重來，但美國(guó)和英國(guó)等部分歐洲國(guó)家都成功地控制了疫情并放寬了旅行限制措施。不過，在這種快速變化且充滿不確定的背景之下，歐佩克仍將2021年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期上調(diào)0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，至5.5%；2020年為收縮3.5%。

　　張春曉 摘譯自 道瓊斯

　　原文如下：

　　Little Sign of Post-Pandemic Recovery for US Oil Production, OPEC Says

　　American oil production is set to drop again this year, with the shale industry's output showing few signs of recovery despite a broader pickup in economic activity, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Tuesday.

　　In its closely-watched monthly market report, OPEC cut its forecast for the amount it expects production from its noncartel counterparts to increase in 2021 by 200,000 barrels a day to 700,000 barrels a day.

　　Canada, Norway, Brazil will drive that overall increase, but persistently low capital expenditure and the unexpected winter storm Texas suffered in February mean U.S. supply is expected to fall by 100,000 barrels a day this year, after dropping 800,000 barrels a day last year, the cartel said.

　　Despite its forecast for a rise in supply from outside the cartel this year, OPEC said in its report that "uncertainties persist particularly with regard to levels of investment which is expected to determine the non-OPEC supply outlook for the years to come."

　　In its report, OPEC left unchanged its forecast for global oil demand in 2021. The cartel estimates consumption will rise 6 million barrels a day this year to average 96.5 million barrels a day, leaving demand 3.5% lower than it was before coronavirus pandemic restrictions shut factories, grounded planes and kept people at home.

　　The world's post-pandemic economic recovery, which has also prompted a rebound in oil demand, has been variegated in recent months due to governments' differing levels of success in keeping coronavirus case numbers at bay and rolling out vaccination programs.

　　While India and Brazil have suffered a resurgence of cases in recent months, the U.S., and parts of Europe such as the U.K. have all succeeded in bringing infections under control and lifting travel restrictions. Despite that fast-changing and uncertain backdrop, OPEC raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 by 0.1 percentage point to 5.5%, after a 3.5% contraction in 2020.

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