據全球能源新聞網6月15日報道，美國能源情報署（EIA）在6月份發布的《短期能源展望》(STEO)中預測，全球布倫特原油價格將在今年年中穩定，第三季度平均每桶68美元左右，2022年降至平均每桶60美元。5月份布倫特原油均價為68美元/桶，較1月份的均價上漲了25%。

　　EIA代理署長Stephen Nalley表示，未來幾個月，我們預計全球石油產量將趕上2021年的需求增長。隨著因新冠疫情對全球經濟的擔憂開始緩解，美國和全球石油生產商正在增加產量，這應該有助于緩和已大幅上漲的油價。

　　據EIA預計，2021年全球石油和液體燃料消費將增長6%，總計9770萬桶/天，2022年將進一步增長4%，達到1.013億桶/天。為了應對全球需求的增長，我們預測2022年美國原油日均產量將達到1180萬桶，較2020年增長4%。我們預計2022年歐佩克的日產量將達到2870萬桶，較2020年增長12%。

　　EIA表示：

　　?我們預計，從4-9月的夏季駕駛季節，美國普通汽油零售均價將為每加侖2.92美元。我們預計今年夏季汽油月平均價格將在6月達到每加侖3.03美元的峰值。

　　?我們預計2021年和2022年美國小規模太陽能發電能力將增加9吉瓦。

　　?我們將2021年美國煤炭產量預測修改為6億短噸，比5月份的預測增加了3%，因為我們提高了煤炭出口和庫存水平的預測。

　　郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網

　　原文如下：

　　BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICES TO STABILIZE THEN DECLINE AS OIL PRODUCTION INCREASES

　　EIA (US Energy Information Administration) forecasts in the June release of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that global Brent crude oil prices will stabilize in mid-2021 and average about $68 per barrel (b) in the third quarter before decreasing to an average of $60/b in 2022. Brent crude oil prices averaged $68/b in May, a 25% increase from January’s average.

　　“In the coming months, we expect global oil production to catch up with the increases we’ve seen in demand in 2021,” said EIA Acting Administrator Stephen Nalley. “U.S. and global oil producers are increasing their production, which should help moderate oil prices that have increased significantly as global economic concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic have begun to ease.”

　　The EIA expect global petroleum and liquid fuels consumption to grow by 6% in 2021, totaling 97.7 million barrels per day (b/d), and increase a further 4% in 2022, reaching 101.3 million b/d. In response to this increase in global demand, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 11.8 million b/d in 2022, up 4% from 2020. We expect OPEC production to reach 28.7 million b/d in 2022, an increase of 12% over 2020.

　　The EIA said:

　　? “We expect U.S. regular retail gasoline prices to average $2.92 per gallon for the summer driving season, which runs April through September. We expect monthly average gasoline prices this summer to peak in June at $3.03 per gallon.

　　? We forecast an increase of 9 gigawatts of U.S. small-scale solar electricity capacity in 2021 and 2022.

　　? We revised our forecast of U.S. coal production in 2021 to 600 million short tons, a 3% increase from our May forecast, because we raised our forecast of coal exports and inventory levels.”

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