據(jù)彭博社7月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)即將大量出口原油的前景十分不明朗，石油價(jià)格上漲至兩年半以來(lái)的最高水平，同時(shí)，國(guó)際能源署（IEA）警告稱，供應(yīng)危機(jī)正在加劇。

　　周二，紐約原油期貨價(jià)格上漲1.6%，收于每桶75.25美元，為2018年10月以來(lái)的最高結(jié)算價(jià)。IEA在一份報(bào)告中稱，在歐佩克+成員國(guó)陷入僵局之際，原油供應(yīng)將"大幅收緊"。

　　Oanda公司的高級(jí)市場(chǎng)分析師Ed Moya表示:“供應(yīng)短缺將再次成為市場(chǎng)主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。”

　　美國(guó)石油協(xié)會(huì)（API）表示，上周美國(guó)原油供應(yīng)減少408萬(wàn)桶，俄克拉荷馬州庫(kù)欣（Cushing）這一美國(guó)最大的原油儲(chǔ)備中心的庫(kù)存也有所下降，期貨價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲。

　　隨著疫苗接種的推進(jìn)加速了各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的重新開放，推高了燃料消費(fèi)，油價(jià)今年已飆升逾50%。歐佩克和其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)通過(guò)采取循序漸進(jìn)的方式恢復(fù)中斷的供應(yīng)，支撐油價(jià)。

　　但是，由于阿聯(lián)酋和沙特阿拉伯之間的爭(zhēng)端持續(xù)，該石油財(cái)團(tuán)在增產(chǎn)問題上陷入僵局。8月份，兩國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量將均保持穩(wěn)定。

　　花旗集團(tuán)(Citigroup Inc.)大宗商品研究主管Ed Morse在一封電子郵件中表示:“即使歐佩克決定在8月份增產(chǎn)，原油也要等到8月份需求高峰期結(jié)束后才能到達(dá)煉油廠?！?/p>

　　價(jià)格方面

　　紐約商品交易所8月份交貨的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油交易價(jià)格為每桶75.14美元。

　　歐洲期貨交易所9月份交割的布倫特原油價(jià)格上漲1.33美元，收于每桶76.49美元。

　　值得一提的是，油價(jià)在不斷上漲，但需求反彈仍受到新冠肺炎變異病毒株迅速傳播的威脅。隨著新冠肺炎疫情在尚未完全大面積接種疫苗的東南亞地區(qū)傳播，迫使這些地區(qū)的工作和出行受到限制。

　　東南亞最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體印尼正受到一波特別殘酷的疫情的打擊，促使工業(yè)中心爪哇和旅游勝地巴厘島采取了限制措施。馬來(lái)西亞仍處于全國(guó)封鎖之中，而泰國(guó)剛剛加強(qiáng)了出行限制。

　　API報(bào)告稱，上周汽油供應(yīng)減少154萬(wàn)桶，蒸餾油庫(kù)存增加370萬(wàn)桶。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

　　原文如下：

　　Oil advances to 33-month high on warning about supply crunch

　　Oil rose to the highest price in more than 2 1/2 years as prospects of the major producers waned while the International Energy Agency warned of a deepening supply crunch.

　　Futures in New York advanced 1.6 per cent to close at US$75.25 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest settlement since October 2018. Crude supplies are set to “tighten significantly” amid a deadlock among members of the OPEC+ alliance, the IEA said in a report.

　　“The supply-deficit story is reasserting as the primary driver,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp.

　　Futures clung to gains after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report U.S. crude supplies fell 4.08 million barrels last week and inventories declined at the nation’s biggest storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma.

　　Oil prices have surged more than 50 per cent this year as vaccination rollouts accelerated the reopening of economies, boosting fuel consumption. OPEC and allied crude producers have supported prices by taking a gradual approach to resurrecting shuttered supplies.

　　The oil consortium has been deadlocked on increasing production as the dispute between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia persists. Both countries have locked in stable crude output for next month.

　　“Even if OPEC decides to raise output in August, that crude will not reach refineries until after the August peak-demand period will be over,” Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said in an email.

　　Prices

　　West Texas Intermediate for August delivery traded at US$75.14 a barrel at 4:47 p.m. in after-market trading after settling at US$75.25 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

　　Brent for September settlement advanced US$1.33 to end session at US$76.49 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

　　Still, the demand rebound is imperiled by the swift spread of the COVID-19 delta variant, which is forcing restrictions on work and mobility as it spreads through a largely unvaccinated Southeast Asia.

　　Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, is being wracked by a particularly brutal wave of the pandemic, prompting restrictions in the industrial heartland of Java and the tourist enclave of Bali. Malaysia is still in the midst of a nationwide lockdown, while Thailand has just stepped up limitations.

　　The API also reported gasoline supplies fell 1.54 million barrels last week and distillate inventories rose 3.7 million barrels.