據油價網7月13日消息稱，每年，在BP統計評論發布后，雷斯塔能源都會發布自己的評估，以對去年世界能源格局的變化進行獨立、可靠和清晰的比較。我們的2021年回顧對世界剩余可采石油資源的規模造成了重大打擊，但它也表明，石油生產和消費可以與氣候目標保持一致。

　　雷斯塔能源現在估計可采石油總資源量為 17250 億桶，低于去年的估計值 19030 億桶。根據我們對未來技術上可開采石油量的估計，在這一總量中，以布倫特原油每桶50美元的實際價格計算，大約有1.3萬億桶的利潤足以在2100年之前生產。

　　雷斯塔能源分析主管 Per Magnus Nysveen 說：“在這種情況下，到 2050 年，全球石油和天然氣液體的產量將降至每天 5000 萬桶以下。從現在到2100年，勘探、開發、加工和消費這些商業開采的石油將導致溫室氣體排放總量不到450吉噸二氧化碳。這符合政府間氣候變化專門委員會關于2100年全球變暖的碳預算限制在1.8攝氏度。”

　　歐佩克國家剩余可采資源減少530億桶，至7410億桶。沙特阿拉伯的原油產量修正幅度最大，損失110億桶，沙特的可采原油產量目前為2880億桶。伊拉克排在第三位，其可采資源減少80億桶至1100億桶。

　　曹海斌 摘譯自 油價網

　　原文如下：

　　World’s Recoverable Oil Resources Shrinks By 9%

　　Every year and following the publication of the BP Statistical Review, Rystad Energy releases its own assessment to provide an independent, solid and clear comparison of how the world’s energy landscape changed last year. Our 2021 review deals a major blow for the size of the world’s remaining recoverable oil resources – but it also shows that oil production and consumption can align with climate goals.

　　Rystad Energy now estimates total recoverable oil resources at 1,725 billion barrels, a significant reduction of last year’s estimate of 1,903 billion barrels. Out of this total, which shows our estimate of how much oil is technically recoverable in the future, about 1,300 billion barrels are sufficiently profitable to be produced before the year 2100 at a Brent real oil price of $50 per barrel.

　　“In this scenario, global production of oil and natural gas liquids will fall below 50 million barrels per day by 2050. Exploring, developing, processing and consuming this amount of commercially extractable oil will lead to gross greenhouse gas emissions of less than 450 gigatonnes of CO2 from now until 2100. This is compliant with IPCC’s carbon budget for global warming limited to 1.8?C by 2100,” says Rystad Energy’s Head of Analysis, Per Magnus Nysveen.

　　The remaining recoverable resources of OPEC countries are reduced by 53 billion barrels to 741 billion barrels. Saudi Arabia has the largest revisions, losing 11 billion barrels, with Saudi recoverable oil volumes now calculated at 288 billion barrels. Iraq follows in third place, seeing its recoverable resources shrink by 8 billion barrels to 110 billion barrels.

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