據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年7月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，俄羅斯第2大石油公司盧克石油公司副總裁列昂尼德·費(fèi)敦說(shuō)，歐佩克可能會(huì)將其對(duì)全球石油市場(chǎng)的控制增加一倍，達(dá)到70%至80%。
據(jù)俄羅斯塔斯社報(bào)道，盧克石油公司負(fù)責(zé)戰(zhàn)略發(fā)展的副總裁費(fèi)敦周一對(duì)記者表示，歐佩克將因默認(rèn)而贏得其增加的份額。
由于氣候政策繼續(xù)對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)造成壓力，石油市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將萎縮，這將使歐佩克國(guó)家在全球石油市場(chǎng)的份額從目前的30%增加到近70-80%。
費(fèi)敦沒(méi)有說(shuō)明歐佩克達(dá)到這一市場(chǎng)份額的具體時(shí)間。
然而，據(jù)費(fèi)敦說(shuō)，盧克石油公司的活動(dòng)不會(huì)受到影響。
費(fèi)敦說(shuō)，“一般來(lái)說(shuō)，在任何發(fā)展方案下，盧克石油公司的活動(dòng)都沒(méi)有受到任何限制。 即使按照國(guó)際能源署（IEA）的預(yù)測(cè)，石油供應(yīng)將減少30%，歐佩克的市場(chǎng)份額仍將增加，屆時(shí)歐佩克將控制大約70 -80%的全球市場(chǎng)份額。”
俄羅斯在周日的歐佩克會(huì)議后表達(dá)了樂(lè)觀情緒，此次會(huì)議上調(diào)了包括俄羅斯在內(nèi)的五個(gè)國(guó)家的基準(zhǔn)產(chǎn)量水平。
根據(jù)新協(xié)議，從明年5月開(kāi)始，俄羅斯的原油基線將調(diào)整為每日1150萬(wàn)桶。
然而，基線并不能直接轉(zhuǎn)移到產(chǎn)量。
盡管如此，據(jù)《上游報(bào)》報(bào)道，俄羅斯副總理亞歷山大·諾瓦克仍然樂(lè)觀地認(rèn)為，到明年5月調(diào)整基線時(shí)，俄羅斯的石油總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。
諾瓦克預(yù)計(jì)，在今年8月到明年5月之間，俄羅斯的石油產(chǎn)量將增加到1.54億桶(或2100萬(wàn)噸)。
諾瓦克希望，基線的向上調(diào)整將重振涌入俄羅斯油氣行業(yè)的投資。
李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
OPEC Could Double Its Control Over Oil Market
OPEC could double its control over the oil market, to between 70% and 80%, according to Lukoil's Vice President.
OPEC will win its increased share by default, Leonid Fedun, Vice President for the strategic development of Lukoil, told reporters on Monday, according to Russian media outlet Tass.
As climate policies continue to weigh on the oil markets, the oil market is expected to contract—a situation that will increase OPEC countries' share of the global oil market from 30% today to nearly 70-80%.
Fedun did not specify the timing of this achievement.
Lukoil's activities, however, will remain unaffected, according to the VP.
"In general, we do not see any restrictions on the activities of our company under any development scenario. Even with the radical IEA scenario where oil supplies will decrease by 30%, we see that OPEC will simply increase its market share, from today to about 70 -80% of the market will be controlled by OPEC."
The Kremin expressed optimism after the OPEC meeting on Sunday that adjusted the baseline production levels upwards for five countries, including Russia.
Under the new deal, Russia's baseline level will be adjusted to 11.5 million barrels per day starting in May of next year, according to an OPEC press release.
baselines, however, aren't directly translatable to production.
Nevertheless, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak remains optimistic that Russia's overall oil production will reach pre-Covid 19 levels by the time its baseline is adjusted, by May of next year, according to Upstream.
Novak sees Russia's production increasing to 154 million barrels (or 21 million tonnes) of oil between August of this year and May of next year.
Novak hopes that the upward adjustment of the baseline will reinvigorate the flow of investments pouring into Russia's oil and gas sector.
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