據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年7月19日報(bào)道，供需基本面的改善促使瑞士信貸上調(diào)了其對油價的短期和長期預(yù)估，瑞士信貸預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油均價為每桶70美元，高于稍早預(yù)估的每桶66.50美元。

　　財(cái)經(jīng)網(wǎng)站Forexlive援引瑞士信貸的一份報(bào)告稱，明年布倫特原油的平均價格將達(dá)到每桶69美元，高于該行此前預(yù)期的每桶68美元。

　　瑞士信貸對布倫特原油的長期預(yù)測也從每桶60美元上調(diào)至62美元。

　　瑞士信貸還把其對美國基準(zhǔn)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的今年平均價格預(yù)估上調(diào)到了每桶67美元，高于此前預(yù)估的每桶62美元。 這家瑞士銀行表示，明年西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的平均價格將達(dá)到每桶66美元，高于此前預(yù)期的每桶63美元。

　　從長期來看，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的平均價格將為每桶59美元，而此前的預(yù)測為每桶55美元。

　　瑞士信貸上調(diào)油價預(yù)測的主要原因是供需基本面的持續(xù)改善。

　　瑞士信貸稱，需求繼續(xù)出人意料地上升，而歐佩克+和美國頁巖盆地在增加市場供應(yīng)方面繼續(xù)保持克制，表現(xiàn)出嚴(yán)格的紀(jì)律。

　　這家瑞士銀行指出，全球范圍內(nèi)，今年下半年原油庫存將繼續(xù)下降，這將支撐原油價格上漲。

　　今年，盡管油價大幅上漲，但美國頁巖在鉆井支出方面仍保持紀(jì)律，選擇將創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金流更多地用于減少債務(wù)和回報(bào)股東。

　　歐佩克+上周日剛剛達(dá)成協(xié)議，從2021年8月開始將月產(chǎn)量每天提高40萬桶，直到解除目前對市場的所有580萬桶/天的減產(chǎn)。

　　在7月18日宣布?xì)W佩克+新協(xié)議后，油價在7月19日下跌了近4%，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格報(bào)收于每桶69.02美元，布倫特原油價格報(bào)收于每桶70.99美元。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Credit Suisse Lifts 2021 Average Brent Price To $70

　　Improving supply and demand fundamentals have prompted Credit Suisse to raise its short and long-term forecasts for oil prices, expecting the average Brent price at $70 a barrel this year, up from $66.50 projected earlier.

　　According to a Credit Suisse note cited by Forexlive, the price of Brent is set to average $69 per barrel next year, up from $68 a barrel the bank had previously expected.

　　The long-term forecast for Brent Crude was also raised—to $62 a barrel from $60 per barrel.

　　Credit Suisse also revised up its forecasts for the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, to an average of $67 a barrel this year, up from $62 per barrel in its previous estimate. Next year, WTI prices are set to average $66 per barrel, up from $63 a barrel expected earlier, according to the Swiss bank.

　　In the long term, WTI Crude prices will average $59 a barrel, compared to the previous projection of $55 per barrel.

　　Credit Suisse’s key reason for raising its oil price forecasts is the continued improvement in the fundamentals in supply and demand.

　　Demand continues to surprise to the upside, while OPEC+ and the U.S. shale patch continue to exercise restraint and show strong discipline in adding supply to the market, according to Credit Suisse.

　　Globally, crude oil stocks will continue to draw down in the second half of this year, supporting higher crude oil prices, the bank noted.

　　This year, despite much higher oil prices, U.S. shale continues to keep discipline in spending on drilling, opting to spend more of its record cash flows on reducing debts and rewarding shareholders.

　　OPEC+, for its part, just sealed a deal on Sunday to boost monthly production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning in August 2021 until unwinding all the 5.8 million bpd cuts it is currently keeping off the market.

　　On Monday, after the OPEC+ deal was announced on Sunday, oil prices were down by nearly 4 percent, with WTI Crude trading at $69.02 and Brent Crude at $70.99.

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