據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年7月15日報道，盡管有報道稱沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國已經(jīng)就石油產(chǎn)量達(dá)成了一項協(xié)議，將歐佩克+協(xié)議延長到2022年年底，但高盛集團(tuán)再次重申了其對布倫特原油價格每桶80美元的預(yù)測。

　　由于圍繞歐佩克+協(xié)議和歐佩克本身未來的不確定性消失，沙特阿拉伯和阿聯(lián)酋達(dá)成協(xié)議的消息傳出后，原油價格應(yīng)聲下跌。 然而，這份協(xié)議將意味著更多阿聯(lián)酋原油進(jìn)入市場。 這也意味著阿聯(lián)酋未來將面臨進(jìn)一步的增產(chǎn)壓力。

　　然而，7月14日晚些時候，阿聯(lián)酋通訊社援引本國能源和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施部的話報道說，“有關(guān)各方仍在進(jìn)行商議，尚未達(dá)成協(xié)議。”

　　7月早些時候，阿聯(lián)酋否決了歐佩克+從8月開始提高原油產(chǎn)量的協(xié)議，阿聯(lián)酋認(rèn)為任何協(xié)議都要以從2018年起修改“低得不公平”的阿聯(lián)酋基線為條件。 阿聯(lián)酋堅持要求以更高的基線來計算其配額，因?yàn)?018年的數(shù)據(jù)沒有反映出阿聯(lián)酋擴(kuò)大的生產(chǎn)能力。 阿聯(lián)酋計劃到2030年前將原油日產(chǎn)量從目前的400萬桶提高到500萬桶。

　　現(xiàn)在，如果協(xié)議真的達(dá)成，阿聯(lián)酋將被允許將其基線原油日產(chǎn)量提高到365萬桶，但問題是目前的協(xié)議將在明年4月到期， 這將高于歐佩克第三大產(chǎn)油國目前的317萬桶的產(chǎn)量基線。

　　在提到石油時，高盛集團(tuán)是最樂觀的銀行之一。 不管最新情況發(fā)展如何，高盛集團(tuán)仍堅持今年布倫特原油價格在每桶80美元。 該行仍預(yù)計，由于需求強(qiáng)勁反彈，石油市場到今年年底將陷入高達(dá)500萬桶/天的缺口。

　　這家美國著名投行今年4月曾表示：“決不能低估需求量即將發(fā)生的變化，而這種變化是供應(yīng)無法比擬的。”

　　李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman Bullish On Oil Despite Saudi-UAE Agreement

　　Goldman Sachs has reiterated its $80 price forecast for Brent crude despite reports that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had reached a deal on oil production that will extend the OPEC+ deal until the end of next year.

　　Crude oil fell after the news of the Saudi-Emirati agreement broke as the uncertainty surrounding the future of the OPEC+ deal and OPEC itself disappeared. Yet, the agreement will mean more UAE oil coming to the market. It also means further pressure from the Emirates to boost production in the future.

　　However, later on Wednesday, the Emirati News Agency wrote, citing the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure that "deliberations between the concerned parties are still going on and that an agreement had not been reached yet."

　　Earlier this month, the UAE blocked a deal on OPEC+ raising oil production from August, making any agreements contingent on revising the "unfairly low" Emirati baseline from 2018. The UAE was insisting on a higher baseline from which to calculate its quotas because the 2018 figure hadn't reflected the country's expanded production capacity. The UAE has ambitions to raise its oil production capacity to 5 million bpd by 2030, from around 4 million bpd now.

　　Now, if an agreement is indeed reached, the UAE will be allowed to raise its baseline production level to 3.65 million bpd but only when the current deal expires in April next year. That would be up from 3.17 million bpd as the current production baseline for OPEC's third-largest producer.

　　Goldman has been one of the most bullish banks when it comes to oil. It has stuck to its $80 for Brent this year no matter the latest developments. The bank still expects the oil market to sink into a deficit of as much as 5 million bpd by the end of this year because of the strong rebound in demand that we are already witnessing.

　　"The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand -- a change which supply cannot match -- must not be understated," the investment bank said in April.