·包括英國(guó)石油公司在內(nèi)的許多預(yù)測(cè)者在2020年認(rèn)為，全球石油需求峰值已經(jīng)過(guò)去  

·投資銀行分析師似乎壓倒性地預(yù)計(jì)，由于需求強(qiáng)勁而供應(yīng)不那么強(qiáng)勁，油價(jià)將會(huì)上漲  

·2022年全球石油需求將會(huì)更加強(qiáng)勁，即使第一季度需求會(huì)出現(xiàn)短暫下降  

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年12月28日?qǐng)?bào)道，2020年，全球石油需求遭受了嚴(yán)重打擊。 然后，石油需求開(kāi)始反彈，比大多數(shù)人預(yù)期的要快得多。 由于綠色轉(zhuǎn)型的推動(dòng)，石油需求也將繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇到2022年以及之后的年份。包括英國(guó)石油公司在內(nèi)的許多預(yù)測(cè)者在2020年認(rèn)為，全球石油需求峰值已經(jīng)過(guò)去，我們必須期待的是一個(gè)更加可再生的能源組合。 然后，隨著全球主要市場(chǎng)的病例數(shù)量開(kāi)始下降，石油需求開(kāi)始上升。自那以來(lái)，需求強(qiáng)勁反彈，導(dǎo)致預(yù)測(cè)人士開(kāi)始警告全球石油市場(chǎng)可能出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺。 

沙特阿拉伯最近警告說(shuō)，對(duì)新油氣生產(chǎn)的投資不足將導(dǎo)致價(jià)格上漲和供應(yīng)緊張。  

沙特阿拉伯能源大臣阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼王子12月早些時(shí)候表示：“如果沒(méi)有足夠的能源支出，我們將走向一個(gè)可能很危險(xiǎn)的階段。”他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，投資不足可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致“能源危機(jī)”。  

由于石油和天然氣行業(yè)的碳足跡，銀行界感到越來(lái)越大的壓力，要求銀行停止與油氣行業(yè)的業(yè)務(wù)往來(lái)，這也是需求預(yù)測(cè)與供應(yīng)現(xiàn)實(shí)之間存在差異的原因之一。這很可能會(huì)加劇能源危機(jī)，如果這樣一種危機(jī)真的很可能發(fā)生的話。

這種能源危機(jī)很有可能發(fā)生。 投資銀行分析師似乎壓倒性地預(yù)計(jì)，由于需求強(qiáng)勁而供應(yīng)不那么強(qiáng)勁，油價(jià)將會(huì)上漲。 高盛投資銀行分析師達(dá)明·庫(kù)瓦林12月稍早時(shí)候表示，布倫特原油2022年可能觸及每桶100美元。 摩根士丹利分析師以對(duì)奧密克戎毒株的擔(dān)憂為由下調(diào)了他們對(duì)2022年第一季度石油價(jià)格的預(yù)期，但將第三季度布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)期從每桶85美元上調(diào)至90美元。

加拿大蒙特利爾銀行集團(tuán)預(yù)計(jì)，2022年全球石油需求將創(chuàng)下新紀(jì)錄，并在未來(lái)幾年里保持強(qiáng)勁增加，盡管2022年第一季度全球石油需求會(huì)暫時(shí)下降，這也是由于受到新冠病毒的奧密克戎變種的影響。 

說(shuō)到奧密克戎毒株，歐佩克在很大程度上沒(méi)有理會(huì)其他人眼中的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和石油需求面臨的新威脅。 歐佩克的最新月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告實(shí)際上提高了其對(duì)2022年第一季度全球石油需求的預(yù)測(cè)。

據(jù)歐佩克稱(chēng)，隨著世界更好地應(yīng)對(duì)疫情及其相關(guān)挑戰(zhàn)，奧密克戎變異體對(duì)全球石油需求的影響將是“溫和和短暫的”。  

高盛投資銀行分析師庫(kù)瓦林似乎同意歐佩克這一觀點(diǎn)。 路透社援引庫(kù)瓦林最近的講話內(nèi)容報(bào)道說(shuō)：“如果這是另一波我們以前看到過(guò)的疫情浪潮，那么它將對(duì)2022年第一季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)造成負(fù)面影響。”“但如果隨后出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，全球石油需求將在2022年的大部分時(shí)間里創(chuàng)下歷史新高。2021年11月初，全球石油需求曾短暫觸及疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。”

如果之前的疫情浪潮是任何跡象，那么這次疫情浪潮之后也會(huì)有復(fù)蘇。 一個(gè)潛在的問(wèn)題是供應(yīng)商如何在短期內(nèi)滿足這種需求的能力。 對(duì)新石油生產(chǎn)的投資確實(shí)大幅下降，而且油氣行業(yè)的許多企業(yè)——主要是超級(jí)石油巨頭——仍然對(duì)更多的石油和天然氣投資持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度，所以他們轉(zhuǎn)而投資可再生能源產(chǎn)能。  

然而，這可能會(huì)給油氣行業(yè)的許多企業(yè)開(kāi)一個(gè)糟糕的玩笑。 如果說(shuō)歐洲能源危機(jī)教會(huì)了我們什么的話，那就是一個(gè)令人不快的事實(shí)：即使是綠色和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的歐洲，仍然嚴(yán)重依賴化石燃料。 而且，歐洲并不是最大的石油消費(fèi)國(guó)之一，而新興的亞洲卻擁有這種興趣，所有的預(yù)測(cè)都表明，未來(lái)幾年亞洲的石油需求將進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)。

根據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，截至2021年10月，歐佩克+的備用日產(chǎn)能為511萬(wàn)桶。 然而，備用產(chǎn)能并不是靜止不變的，10月份的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)際上已比2021年初大幅下降，當(dāng)時(shí)歐佩克的備用日產(chǎn)能為900萬(wàn)桶。 到2022年年底，這一數(shù)字可能進(jìn)一步降至400萬(wàn)桶以下。

這種狀況促使國(guó)際能源署(IEA)敦促加大對(duì)新石油生產(chǎn)的投資。 就在幾個(gè)月前，IEA還呼吁停止所有新的油氣投資，以實(shí)現(xiàn)全球凈零排放目標(biāo)。 

因此，2022年全球石油需求將會(huì)更加強(qiáng)勁，即使第一季度在我們接受奧密克戎變種的時(shí)候會(huì)出現(xiàn)短暫的下降。 盡管需求增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，但在ESG投資者和政府的壓力下，供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)將繼續(xù)滯后。 2022年，石油市場(chǎng)無(wú)疑將迎來(lái)引人注目的一年。  

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand Could Reach New Heights In 2022

·     Many forecasters, including BP, in 2020 argued that peak oil was already past us

·     Investment bank analysts seem to overwhelmingly expect higher prices because of strong demand and not-so-strong supply

·     Next year will see even stronger oil demand, even with a temporary dip during the first quarter

Oil demand suffered a severe blow last year. Then the wave receded, and oil demand began to rebound, much faster than most expected. Despite the green transition push, demand will continue to recover into next year, too, and those after it. Many forecasters, including BP, in 2020 argued that peak oil was already past us and what we had to look forward to was a more renewable energy mix. And then Covid-19 case numbers in key markets began to decline, and oil demand began to rise. Since then, demand has rebounded so strongly that it has led forecasts to start warning of the possibility of a shortage.

Saudi Arabia recently warned that underinvestment in new oil and gas production would lead to higher prices and supply crunches.

"We're heading toward a phase that could be dangerous if there's not enough spending on energy," the Kingdom's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said earlier this month. Insufficient investment could lead to an "energy crisis," he added. 

Banks are contributing to the discrepancy between demand forecasts and supply realities as they feel growing pressure to stop doing business with the oil and gas industry because of its carbon footprint. This may well exacerbate the energy crunch if such a crunch is indeed in the cards.

It probably is. Investment bank analysts seem to overwhelmingly expect higher prices because of strong demand and not-so-strong supply. Goldman Sachs' Damien Courvalin said earlier this month Brent crude could hit $100 next year. Morgan Stanley analysts slashed their first-quarter 2022 outlook for oil, citing omicron concerns but raised their third-quarter forecast to $90 per barrel of Brent, from $85 per barrel.

Canada's BMO Markets expects oil demand to hit a record next year and remain strong over the next few years as well despite a temporary dip in the first quarter, again because of the omicron variant of the coronavirus.

Speaking of omicron, OPEC has largely brushed off what others see as a new threat for global economies and oil demand. The cartel, in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report actually raised its demand forecast for the first quarter of next year.

According to the cartel, the effect of omicron on oil demand will be "mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage COVID-19 and its related challenges."

Goldman's Courvalin appears to agree with this view. "If this is another wave like the ones we've seen before then it is a negative hit to economic growth in the first quarter of 2022," he said recently, as quoted by Reuters. "But if there is a subsequent recovery, oil demand, which briefly touched pre-COVID levels in early November, would then be at new record highs for most of 2022."

If the previous Covid-19 waves are any indication, there will be a recovery after this wave, too. A potential problem would be the ability of suppliers to satisfy this demand beyond the short term. Investments in new oil production have indeed declined considerably, and many in the industry—chiefly the supermajors—are still wary of splashing on more oil and gas, so they splash instead on renewable power capacity.

This may play them a bad joke down the road, however. If the European energy crisis has taught us anything, it is the unpleasant fact that even green and sustainable Europe is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels. And Europe is not among the top consumers of oil—it's emerging Asia that has this pleasure, and all forecasts point towards this demand growing further in the coming years.

OPEC+'s spare capacity stood at 5.11 million bpd as of October this year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, spare capacity is not static, and the October figure is actually a substantial decline from the start of 2021 when spare capacity in the extended cartel stood at 9 million bpd. And it could fall further to less than 4 million bpd by the end of next year.

This state of affairs prompted the International Energy Agency, a vocal proponent of the energy transition, to urge more investments in new oil production. Just how serious the situation could become because of this discrepancy shows in the fact that just months earlier, the IEA had called for an end to all new oil and gas investments so the world can reach its net-zero targets.

So it appears that next year will see even stronger oil demand, even with a temporary dip during the first quarter while we come to terms with the omicron variant. And while demand grows stronger, supply growth will continue to lag behind under ESG investor and government pressure. Oil markets are certainly in for an interesting year in 2022.

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