據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶1月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署 (EIA)在其1月份短期能源展望 (STEO)透露，該機(jī)構(gòu)上調(diào)了2022年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)。
該機(jī)構(gòu)目前預(yù)計(jì)，今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)為74.95美元/桶，較EIA去年12月的STEO預(yù)測(cè)的70.05美元/桶高出4.9美元。
最新STEO預(yù)測(cè)，展望2023年，布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)明年將首次跌至每桶67.50美元。EIA 1月份的STEO報(bào)告指出，2021年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)為每桶70.89美元。
在最新的STEO中，EIA預(yù)測(cè)2022年全球石油庫(kù)存將以每天50萬(wàn)桶的速度增加，2023年將以每天60萬(wàn)桶的速度增加。EIA估計(jì)全球液體燃料庫(kù)存在2021日均下降了140萬(wàn)桶。據(jù)說(shuō)，2020年，日均增加210萬(wàn)桶。
該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，2022年全球液體燃料日消耗量將增加360萬(wàn)桶，2023年將增加180萬(wàn)桶。2022年，歐佩克原油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加250萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到2880萬(wàn)桶，2023年將進(jìn)一步增加100000桶，達(dá)到2890萬(wàn)桶。
預(yù)計(jì)今年美國(guó)原油日均產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1180萬(wàn)桶，2023年將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1240萬(wàn)桶。據(jù)顯示，2021年美國(guó)原油日均產(chǎn)量為1120萬(wàn)桶。目前的紀(jì)錄是2019年創(chuàng)下的1230萬(wàn)桶/天。
EIA 指出，其最新的STEO繼續(xù)反映出由于持續(xù)的新冠疫情而導(dǎo)致的不確定性增強(qiáng)。
EIA在1月份的STEO中指出,特別是,新冠病毒的奧密克戎變種引發(fā)了關(guān)于全球能源消費(fèi)的問(wèn)題。
EIA補(bǔ)充道，除了宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性外，冬季天氣和消費(fèi)者能源需求的不確定性也為能源消費(fèi)帶來(lái)了潛在的后果。
EIA繼續(xù)道，預(yù)測(cè)中的供應(yīng)不確定性源于歐佩克+生產(chǎn)決策的不確定性以及美國(guó)油氣生產(chǎn)商增加鉆探活動(dòng)的速度。
撰寫本文時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶84.12美元。
郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶
原文如下：
EIA Raises Oil Price Forecast for 2022
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent spot average price forecast for 2022, its January short term energy outlook (STEO) has revealed.
The organization now sees Brent spot prices averaging $74.95 per barrel this year, which marks a $4.90 increase on its previous 2022 projection of $70.05, which was made in the EIA’s December STEO.
Looking ahead to 2023 for the first time, the latest STEO forecasts that average Brent spot prices will drop to $67.50 per barrel next year. Brent spot prices averaged $70.89 per barrel in 2021, the EIA’s January STEO highlighted.
In its latest STEO, the EIA projects that global oil inventories will increase at a rate of 500,000 barrels per day in 2022 and 600,000 barrels per day in 2023. The EIA estimates that global liquid fuels inventories fell by an average of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2021. These were said to have grown by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2020.
The organization expects global liquid fuels consumption will grow by 3.6 million barrels per day in 2022 and by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023. OPEC crude oil production is expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day to average 28.8 million barrels per day in 2022 and by a further 100,000 barrels per day in 2023 to average 28.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 11.8 million barrels per day this year before rising to a new record of 12.4 million barrels per day in 2023. The U.S. was shown to have averaged 11.2 million barrels per day in 2021. Its current record of 12.3 million barrels per day was set in 2019.
The EIA notes that its latest STEO continues to reflect heightened levels of uncertainty as a result of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.
“Notably, the Omicron variant of Covid-19 raises questions about global energy consumption,” the EIA noted in its January STEO.
“In addition to macroeconomic uncertainties, uncertainty about winter weather and consumer energy demand also present a wide range of potential outcomes for energy consumption,” the EIA added.
“Supply uncertainty in the forecast stems from uncertainty about OPEC+ production decisions and the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas producers will increase drilling,” the EIA continued.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent stood at $84.12 per barrel.
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