據(jù)國際能源及大宗商品價(jià)格評估機(jī)構(gòu)阿格斯1月18日報(bào)道，全球需求將從2020年的1.2億噸/年增加近四倍，達(dá)到4.1億噸/年左右，其中可再生能源綠氫供應(yīng)三分之二，藍(lán)氫供應(yīng)三分之一。藍(lán)氫主要來源于天然氣，但其碳排放被捕獲、封存或再利用。化石衍生的灰氫，預(yù)計(jì)將被完全淘汰。

報(bào)告稱，到2030年，綠氫可能在成本上對藍(lán)氫具有競爭力，亞洲的電解成本較低，而在印度和巴西，可再生能源價(jià)格低廉，天然氣價(jià)格昂貴。綠氫成本預(yù)期下降，加上更嚴(yán)格的氣候緩解政策，意味著對藍(lán)色或灰色氫的投資可能會擱淺。

目前已有30多個(gè)國家制定了氫氣計(jì)劃，而2017年只有日本制定了這一計(jì)劃，低碳?xì)錃馐袌龅某霈F(xiàn)可能會影響經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治關(guān)系。

報(bào)告表示，澳大利亞、智利、摩洛哥、沙特阿拉伯和美國最有可能在2050年前成為主要的清潔氫生產(chǎn)國。澳大利亞、沙特阿拉伯和美國可以保留其能源出口國的角色，但智利、摩洛哥和納米比亞等國家可能會轉(zhuǎn)而成為能源凈出口國，并獲得地緣戰(zhàn)略重要地位。

日本、韓國和歐洲部分國家和拉丁美洲可能需要進(jìn)口氫氣來滿足需求，值得一提的是，德國和日本已經(jīng)在通過外交途徑確保獲得氫氣。

由于運(yùn)輸氫氣既不切實(shí)際又成本高昂，目前大約85%的氫氣是在現(xiàn)場生產(chǎn)和消耗的。國際可再生能源機(jī)構(gòu)(IRENA)預(yù)計(jì)，到2050年，三分之二的能源將用于國內(nèi)消費(fèi)，其余將用于國際貿(mào)易。其中一半預(yù)計(jì)將通過管道輸送，包括改造后的天然氣管道，而另一半預(yù)計(jì)將以能量密度更高、更容易液化的“氨氣”形式輸送。

報(bào)告建議，清潔氫應(yīng)該優(yōu)先用于煉油廠，其次是鋼鐵制造和國際航運(yùn)。城市車輛、短期儲能和住宅供暖首選電氣化解決方案。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Argus Media

原文如下：

Hydrogen to meet 12pc of energy demand by 2050: Irena

Its Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation report projects global demand to near quadruple to around 410mn t/yr from 120mn t/yr in 2020, with green hydrogen produced from renewable energy supplying two-thirds and a third for blue hydrogen that is largely derived from gas but has its carbon emissions captured, stored or reused. Fossil-derived grey hydrogen, almost all the hydrogen currently produced, is expected to be entirely phased out.

Green hydrogen by 2030 may become cost-competitive with blue hydrogen in Asia because of low-cost electrolysers and in India and Brazil where renewables are cheap and gas is expensive, the report said.

"The expected cost reduction in green hydrogen coupled with stricter climate mitigation policies means that investments in blue or grey [hydrogen] may end up stranded," the report said.

More than 30 countries now have hydrogen plans compared with only Japan in 2017, with the emergence of a low-carbon hydrogen market likely to affect economic and political relations.

"Australia, Chile, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United States are best placed to emerge as major clean hydrogen producers by 2050", the report said. Australia, Saudi Arabia and the US can retain their role as energy exporters but countries such as Chile, Morocco and Namibia could flip to become net exporters of energy and "gain in geostrategic importance".

Japan, South Korea and parts of Europe and Latin America will probably need imports to satisfy demand, the report said, highlighting that Germany and Japan are already engaged in diplomacy to secure access to hydrogen.

Around 85pc of hydrogen is currently produced and consumed on site because transporting the gas is impractical and costly. Irena expects two-thirds will be consumed domestically by 2050 and the remainder traded internationally. Of this, half is predicted to move via pipeline — including repurposed natural gas pipelines — while the other half is predicted to move in the form of ammonia that is more energy dense and easier to liquefy.

The report suggests clean hydrogen should be prioritised for use in refineries, followed by steel manufacturing and international shipping. Electrification-based solutions were preferred for urban vehicles, short-term energy storage and residential heating.

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