據今日油價網站3月18日消息 美國能源信息管理署（EIA）周五表示，到2050年可再生能源發電在美國電力中的份額將增加一倍以上，從當前的21%增加到44%，因為風能和太陽能裝置預計將激增。

另一方面，根據EIA在其2022年年度能源展望（AEO2022）的參考案例中的估計，預計2050年化石燃料發電量將從2021年的60%下降到44%。

化石燃料發電量下降的主要驅動力將是天然氣發電量增長放緩，以及燃煤發電機的持續退役。EIA表示，到2050年，天然氣發電量將增加，但美國發電混合天然氣的份額2050年將從37%下降至34%。煤炭發電量2050年預計將從2021年的23%下降至10%。

太陽能和風能將在未來三十年內推動可再生能源發電的增長，因為到2050年水力發電預計不會有太大變化，同時地熱和生物質發電總量占美國總發電量的比例仍將不到3%。

可再生能源已經占到了美國新增電力容量的大部分。今年1月，EIA稱，美國將向電網增加46.1吉瓦的新公用事業規模發電容量。計劃在2022年增加的產能中，近一半（46%）將是太陽能，其次是天然氣（21%）和風能（17%）。EIA稱，2022年新增風力發電能力中，預計超過一半（51%）將位于得克薩斯州。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Renewables Will Generate 44% Of U.S. Electricity In 2050

Renewable power generation is set to more than double its share in America’s electricity to 44 percent in 2050 from 21 percent now, as wind and solar installations are expected to surge, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Friday.

Power generation from fossil fuels, on the other hand, is expected to decline from 60 percent in 2021 to 44 percent in 2050, according to EIA’s estimates in the Reference case of its Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022), which assumes current laws and regulations. 

The key drivers of the decline in fossil fuel power generation will be slower growth of natural gas-fired generation and the continued retirement of coal-fired power generators. By 2050, natural gas-fired generation is set to increase in absolute terms, but the share of natural gas in the U.S. power generation mix will fall from 37 percent in 2021 to 34 percent in 2050, the EIA says. The share of coal in power generation is forecast to slump to 10 percent in 2050 from 23 percent in 2021.

So, it will be solar and wind that will drive the growth of renewable power generation over the next three decades, as hydropower is not expected to change much through 2050, while geothermal and biomass would collectively remain less than 3 percent of total U.S. electricity generation. 

Renewables are already accounting for most of the new power capacity coming online in the United States. This year, the U.S. is set to add 46.1 gigawatts (GW) of new utility-scale electric generating capacity to the power grid, the EIA said in January. Almost half—or 46 percent—of the planned 2022 capacity additions will be solar power, followed by natural gas at 21 percent and wind at 17 percent. Just over half—or 51 percent—of the 2022 wind capacity additions are expected to be located in Texas, the EIA said.