據(jù)5月19日今日油價(jià)報(bào)道，在疫情期間發(fā)生了大規(guī)模裁員之后，美國(guó)石油和天然氣行業(yè)的就業(yè)正在復(fù)蘇。但Rystad能源公司周三的一項(xiàng)新分析顯示，在未來(lái)五年內(nèi)，石油行業(yè)不會(huì)完全復(fù)蘇。

根據(jù)Rystad計(jì)算，美國(guó)石油和天然氣行業(yè)在疫情期間失去了20萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位。這代表了該行業(yè)總勞動(dòng)力的20%。僅在2020年，美國(guó)就失去了10萬(wàn)個(gè)石油和天然氣工作崗位，其中大部分是在鉆井工具和服務(wù)領(lǐng)域。

現(xiàn)在，隨著對(duì)石油和天然氣需求的恢復(fù)，石油和天然氣價(jià)格也隨之回升，一半以上的工作崗位又重新增加了。但根據(jù)Rystad Energy油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)，剩下的復(fù)蘇將會(huì)比較緩慢。Rystad Energy預(yù)計(jì)，今年WTI均價(jià)為106美元/桶，明年為70美元/桶，2025年為50美元/桶。

Rystad表示，今年美國(guó)石油和天然氣行業(yè)的就業(yè)崗位將增長(zhǎng)12.5%，年底將有97.1萬(wàn)個(gè)油氣行業(yè)工作崗位。到2027年，這一數(shù)字將從疫情暴發(fā)前的107萬(wàn)增加到109萬(wàn)。

Rystad還指出，盡管今年就業(yè)人數(shù)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)12.5%，但由于通貨膨脹影響了油氣公司的利潤(rùn)，工資今年只會(huì)增長(zhǎng)2.9%。

然而，到2024年，這一工資增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加10%。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Oil, Gas Employment Will Take Five Years To Recover From Covid: Rystad

Oil and gas sector employment is on the road to recovery in the United States after the significant job shedding that took place during the pandemic era. But a full recovery won't be seen for another five years, a new analysis from Rystad Energy showed on Wednesday.

The U.S. oil and gas industry lost 200,000 jobs during the pandemic, according to Rystad calculations. This represented 20% of the total workforce in the sector. In 2020 alone, 100,000 oil and gas jobs were lost in the United States—mostly in the drilling tools and services segment.

Now, as demand for oil and gas has recovered—and oil and gas prices along with it—more than half of those jobs have since been added back. But the remainder of the recovery is set to be slower, based on Rystad Energy's oil price scenario where WTI averages $106 this year, $70 per barrel next year, and $50 per barrel in 2025.

This year, US oil and gas employment is set to grow by 12.5%, Rystad said, finishing the year with 971,000 O&G jobs. By 2027, that figure is set to reach 1.09 million—up from 1.07 million pre-Covid.

Rystad also noted that while the number of jobs is expected to increase by 12.5% this year, wages are only set to grow 2.9% this year, as inflation hits oil and gas company bottom lines.

By 2024, however, this wage growth is expected to increase by 10%.