據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年12月5日報道，惠譽(yù)解決方案國家風(fēng)險與行業(yè)研究公司在12月5日早上發(fā)送給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份最新報告中披露了其最新的布倫特原油價格預(yù)測。

惠譽(yù)解決方案在報告中透露，預(yù)計今年布倫特原油的平均價格為每桶102美元，2023年為每桶95美元，2024年和2025年為每桶88美元，2026年為每桶85美元。該預(yù)測與惠譽(yù)解決方案11月初發(fā)送給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的油價預(yù)測報告中的預(yù)測沒有變化。

包括在惠譽(yù)解決方案最新報告中的彭博共識預(yù)測，今年布倫特原油的平均價格為每桶101美元，2023年為每桶96.3美元，2024年為每桶88美元，2025年為每桶85美元，2026年為每桶80.1美元。在惠譽(yù)解決方案之前的報告中，彭博共識預(yù)測今年布倫特原油價格將達(dá)到每桶101美元，2023年將達(dá)到每桶98美元，2024年將達(dá)到每桶88美元，2025年將達(dá)到每桶82美元，2026年達(dá)到每桶80.1美元。 

惠譽(yù)解決方案分析師們在最新報告中稱：“11月份對市場來說是充滿挑戰(zhàn)的一個月，在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境惡化和對石油的看跌情緒日益加劇的情況下，布倫特原油價格下跌近10%。”

“受多頭平倉和空頭大幅增加的推動，有管理的資金頭寸大幅轉(zhuǎn)變，給期貨市場帶來沉重壓力。期限結(jié)構(gòu)弱化，導(dǎo)致即期價差變?yōu)槠谪浺鐑r，而前月價格跌至地緣政治沖突以來的最低水平。”惠譽(yù)解決方案分析師們補(bǔ)充道。

“油價下跌在很大程度上是投機(jī)驅(qū)動的，布倫特原油與前線交易互換價格(衡量實物桶相對于紙面桶的溢價)小幅走高，而沙特阿美上調(diào)了面向西北歐和地中海地區(qū)原油的官方基準(zhǔn)售價。盡管如此，在亞洲的引領(lǐng)下，全球石油市場已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了根本性放松的跡象……在全球范圍內(nèi)，隨著宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)惡化，價格正在供應(yīng)方面的約束和需求前景的疲弱之間左右搖擺。”分析師們繼續(xù)表示。  

在撰寫本文時，布倫特原油的交易價格為每桶87.13美元。上個月，布倫特原油價格一度高達(dá)每桶98.57美元。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Fitch Solutions Reveals Latest Oil Price Forecasts

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has revealed its latest Brent crude oil price forecasts in a new report sent to Rigzone early this morning.

In the report, the group revealed that it sees Brent averaging $102 per barrel this year, $95 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in both 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026. The projections are unchanged from those in Fitch Solutions’ previous oil price forecast report, which was sent to Rigzone at the start of November.

The Bloomberg Consensus, which was included in Fitch Solutions’ latest report and which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to, sees Brent averaging $101 per barrel this year, $96.3 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in 2024, $85 per barrel in 2025, and $80.1 per barrel in 2026. In Fitch Solutions’ previous report, the Bloomberg Consensus saw Brent coming in at $101 per barrel in 2022, $98 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in 2024, $82 per barrel in 2025, and $80.1 per barrel in 2026.

“November was a challenging month for the market, with Brent posting a drop of nearly 10 percent amid a deteriorating macroeconomic environment and increasingly bearish sentiment towards oil,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the latest report.

“Managed money positioning shifted sharply, fueled by both a liquidation of the longs and a steep rise in shorts, putting heavy pressure on the futures market. The term structure weakened, tipping the prompt spread into contango, while front month prices fell to their lowest levels since the war,” the analysts added.

“In large part the decline was speculatively driven, with the dated Brent to frontline swap – a marker of the premium held by physical barrels over paper ones – edging higher, while Saudi Aramco hiked its benchmark official selling prices to the North West Europe and Mediterranean regions. Nevertheless, there have been signs of a fundamental loosening in the global oil market, led by Asia … Globally, prices are being torn between constraints on the supply side and a weakening outlook on demand, as the macroeconomy deteriorates,” the analysts continued.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude is trading at $87.13 per barrel. Last month, Brent traded as high as $98.57 per barrel.