據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年12月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)在周二（12月6日）發(fā)布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)報(bào)告中下調(diào)了2022年和2023年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)。

根據(jù)STEO報(bào)告公布的數(shù)據(jù)，EIA目前預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均為每桶101.48美元，明年為每桶92.36美元。在11月份發(fā)布的上一份STEO報(bào)告中，EIA預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均為每桶102.13美元，2023年為每桶95.33美元。  

EIA在其最新的STEO報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào)，11月份布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)為每桶91美元。EIA概述稱(chēng)，這略低于10月份的價(jià)格，并補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)，11月7日現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格接近每桶100美元，11月底為每桶86美元。  

EIA在12月份的STEO報(bào)告中表示：“油價(jià)下調(diào)主要是市場(chǎng)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的擔(dān)憂。”

“今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格將達(dá)到平均每桶101美元。盡管最近原油價(jià)格下跌，但我們?nèi)灶A(yù)計(jì)2023年初全球石油庫(kù)存下降將推動(dòng)布倫特原油價(jià)格在2023年第二季度初回升至每桶90美元以上。”

EIA繼續(xù)表示：“盡管根據(jù)我們對(duì)石油庫(kù)存上升的預(yù)測(cè)，我們預(yù)計(jì)2023年下半年可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些油價(jià)下行壓力，但這種壓力可能會(huì)被持續(xù)的供應(yīng)中斷或產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)低于我們的預(yù)測(cè)所平衡。”

在撰寫(xiě)本文時(shí)，布倫特原油的價(jià)格為每桶79.47美元。布倫特原油12月1日收于每桶86.88美元。 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

EIA Lowers 2022 and 2023 Oil Price Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent oil price forecasts for both 2022 and 2023 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on Tuesday.

The EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $101.48 per barrel this year and $92.36 per barrel next year, according to the STEO. In its previous STEO, which was released in November, the EIA saw the Brent spot price averaging $102.13 per barrel in 2022 and $95.33 per barrel in 2023.

In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that the spot price of Brent crude oil averaged $91 per barrel in November. This was slightly lower than in October, the EIA outlined, adding that daily spot prices reached almost $100 per barrel on November 7 before ending the month at $86 per barrel.

“The price declines were largely the result of market concerns about global economic growth,” the EIA stated in the December STEO.

“Brent crude oil spot prices are on pace to average $101 per barrel in 2022. Despite the recent drop in crude oil prices, we still expect that falling global inventories of oil in early 2023 will push Brent prices back above $90 per barrel by the beginning of the second quarter of 2023,” the EIA added.

“Although we expect some downward oil price pressure could emerge in the second half of 2023 based on our forecast of rising oil inventories, that pressure will likely be balanced by the ongoing possibility of supply disruptions or production growth that is slower than our forecast,” the EIA continued.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $79.47 per barrel. Brent closed at $86.88 per barrel on December 1.